Methanol: Futures market continues to be weak and spot market adjusts narrowly

On August 19th, the methanol market price index was 2108.89, up 0.65 from the previous working day and 0.03% higher than the previous working day.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on August 16:

China CFR 289-291 US dollars / ton, up 1 US dollars / ton

Us FOB 101102cents / gallon, down 1 cent / gallon

Southeast Asian CFR 345-346 US dollars / ton, down 1 US dollars / ton

European FOB 332-336 euros / ton, up 3 euros / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2120-2190 (0), North: 2010-2040 (0), South: 2050 (- 20), Lunan: 2340-2350 (0), Henan: 2290-2310 (20), Shanxi: 2150-2240 (0), Port: 24152425 (- 5)

Freight:

North Route-North Shandong 250-300 (0ax 10), North Line-South Shandong 320-340 (30-10), South Line-North Shandong 250-290 (- 10max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 190-240 (- 20pm 0)

Spot marketToday, the price of methanol market is arranged in a narrow range, and the futures market continues to run weakly. At present, the recovery of the downstream market is relatively slow, and the new prices of some manufacturers in the main producing areas have not been out for the time being, and the enthusiasm of operators to enter the market and replenish stocks is relatively limited. The bidding situation in the northwest region is OK. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas are operating steadily, with quotations on the southern route around 2050 yuan / ton and the northern line around 2010-2040 yuan / ton, with low-end stability. Today, the auction prices of the main enterprises in the North Line and Yulin are mostly the same as last week, and the overall transaction is relatively smooth. Downstream and traders mostly maintain cautious rigid demand procurement. The market prices in Shandong, the main consumer area, are arranged in a narrow range, with 2310-2350 yuan / ton in southern Shandong and 2310-2330 yuan / ton in northern Shandong. Downstream and traders are cautious in taking goods. In addition, some of the devices in the market have restarted today's products, the supply in the market has increased, and the market trading atmosphere is cautious. The market quotation in North China is running stably for the time being. Hebei quotation today is 2250-2300 yuan / ton, maintaining yesterday, the new market order transaction is less, and the market price has no obvious fluctuation for the time being; Shanxi quotation today is 2150-2240 yuan / ton, maintaining yesterday, the terminal demand continues to be weak, and the market transaction is dominated by rigid demand small orders.

Port marketToday, methanol futures consolidation. The spot goods are mainly shipped, and the demand is general. Paper goods in the morning a small amount of high shipments, arbitrage and exchange to buy, the basis remains stable; afternoon bargain delivery slightly increased. 09pm 01 contract spread widened, 01 base spread weakened. The overall deal was average. Taicang main port transaction price: 8, transaction price: 2415-2425, base difference: 09pm, price: 2425, basis difference: 09pm, price difference:: 2415-2425, basis difference: 09cm, price difference: 10cm, transaction price: 2435-2445, basis difference: 09pm, 18pm, price: 20pm: 01-10pm transaction price: 2460-2470, basis difference: 0942pm, transaction price: 2485-2490, basis difference: 09x60, basis difference: 10cm, basis difference: 09pm, basis difference: 10cm, basis difference: 09cm, basis difference: 09x60, basis difference: 09x60, basis difference: 09cm, basis difference: 09pm, basis difference: 09pm, basis difference: 10cm, basis difference: 09pm, basis difference: 09x60, basis difference:

Future forecast:From the perspective of the mainland market, the overall transaction atmosphere is OK after the new price is issued by some manufacturers in the main producing areas, but considering that the follow-up of the terminal downstream market demand is limited at present, some operators in the market still have a certain wait-and-see mood towards the future, and with the return of some early parking devices, the market supply in some areas is expected to increase, and short-term mainland market prices may maintain range fluctuations. From the point of view of the port market, the recent port inventory continues to accumulate, the spot supply is abundant, and the futures market is weak and volatile, and the enthusiasm of operators to enter the market to replenish stock is limited. Generally speaking, it is expected that the short-term methanol market price fluctuates mainly in a narrow range, but in the later stage, we should pay attention to the coal price, the operation of the plant in the field and the follow-up of downstream demand.