Analysis of soda ash market
Today, the price of some domestic soda ash has been reduced within a narrow range. As of now, the price of light soda ash in Central China is between 1,600 - 1,850 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is between 1,750 - 1,950 yuan/ton; the price of light soda ash in North China is between 1,800 - 2,000 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is between 1,950 - 2,050 yuan/ton; individual soda plant units are operating with reduced loads and reduced amounts, and the supply side fluctuates within a narrow range; The weakness of the major downstream glass industries continues, and procurement demand has not improved significantly; while light soda prices in some markets have fallen from low levels, the focus of transactions is low, and companies have cut prices and promoted sales; the soda ash market as a whole has maintained a downward trend.
Futures dynamics
According to Boduo data, the opening price of SA2501, the main contract for soda ash, on August 19, was 1578 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 1596 yuan/ton, an increase of-0.44% within the day. The intraday high was 1613 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1558 yuan/ton, with a total position of 843615 lots, a month-on-month +16406 lots.
Today, the main contract price of soda ash futures rebounded slightly as the market environment bottomed out. The fundamentals of soda ash itself are still weak. It is still difficult to change the loose supply and demand pattern based on supply disturbances during the maintenance season, and downstream demand is also difficult to see an effective boost in the short term. As the pressure on the inventory of soda plants continues to grow, the quotation continues to be lowered, and negative feedback from the market is temporarily difficult to see significant improvement. However, the commodity futures market may temporarily turn into a volatile pattern after experiencing an accelerated bottom last week. In the short term, it is necessary to observe whether the overall commodity market sentiment can stabilize and boost the purchasing mentality on the demand side. Before that, the trading logic of the soda ash market may still focus on its own supply. Strong demand is the main focus.
market outlook
Maintenance plans are still in place in the future, and production and start-up will be adjusted; downstream demand is performing poorly, and the market is still waiting and waiting; prices are expected to continue to operate weakly in the short term.
