Methanol: The current range of methanol period fluctuates, and the industry has obvious wait-and-see attitude

On August 16, the methanol market price index was 2108.24, up 0.61 from yesterday and 0.03 per cent higher than the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on August 15:

China CFR 285-291USD / ton, Ping

Us FOB 102-103cents per gallon, flat

CFR in Southeast Asia: us $346-347 per ton, Ping

European FOB 332-333 euros / ton, up 3 euros / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2120-2180 (0), North: 2010-2060 (0), South: 2070 (0), Lunan: 2340-2350 (0), Henan: 2270-2290 (0), Shanxi: 2150-2240 (0), Port: 24202440 (10)

Freight:

Northern route-230-290 (0amp 0), northern route-southern Shandong 285-330 (0amp 0), southern route-northern Shandong 250-280 (0max 0), Guanzhong-southwest Shandong 170-240 (0max 0)

Spot marketToday, methanol market prices are adjusted in a narrow range, the futures market is volatile, and the trading atmosphere in the port spot market is limited, and some operators still have a wait-and-see mood for the future. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas are operating steadily, with quotations on the southern route around 2070 yuan / ton and the northern line around 2010-2060 yuan / ton, maintaining yesterday, most of the quotations of manufacturers in the region remain stable, and the market transaction atmosphere is limited. The market prices in Shandong, the main consumer area, are arranged in a narrow range, with 2340-2350 yuan / ton in southern Shandong and 2310-2330 yuan / ton in northern Shandong. The downstream market demand recovers well. Under the rigid demand, the market transaction atmosphere is OK, and the inventory pressure in the region is limited. The market quotation in North China is operating stably for the time being. Hebei quotation today is 2250-2300 yuan / ton, maintaining yesterday. At present, the market demand is narrowing in a narrow range, and the market transaction atmosphere is limited; Shanxi quotation today is 2150-2240 yuan / ton, maintaining yesterday. Downstream terminal demand has not seen substantial improvement, market transactions are mainly rigid demand.

Port marketMethanol futures fell in volatility today. Spot demand is limited. Paper arbitrage and exchange negotiations are the main, and there is an increase in the number of unilateral bargains in the afternoon. As the 09 and 01 contract spreads narrow, 09 spreads weaken and 01 spreads strengthen. The overall deal is OK. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2420, basis 09: 2440, basis: 2410-2440, base difference: 09: 010, basis: 2420-2450, base difference: 09: 16, price: 2445-2480, base difference: 09: 39, basis: 2465, base difference: 09: 56.

Future forecast:At present, the mainland market equipment overhaul and restart coexist, Cathay Pacific, Anhui Huayi, Cabelle and other devices all have parking operation, but the individual device maintenance market is relatively short, and Shenmu, Hebi and other devices plan to restart, the mainland market supply may still be abundant, the short-term supply side to the market support performance is poor, although the main downstream market has increased, but the recovery of the traditional downstream market is still less than expected. And the raw material inventory of some downstream factories still needs to be consumed, and the demand for methanol procurement is limited. At present, the performance of methanol fundamentals is general, the mentality of downstream and traders is cautious, and the enthusiasm of entering the market to replenish stock is not good. It is expected that the methanol market price range will fluctuate next week, but in the later stage, we should pay attention to coal prices, plant operation and downstream demand follow-up.