Analysis of soda ash market
Today, the domestic soda ash market price has temporarily stabilized. As of now, the price of light soda ash in Southwest China is between 1,850 - 1,950 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is between 1,900 - 2,000 yuan/ton; the price of light soda ash in Northwest China is between 1,400 - 1,550 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is between 1,500 - 1,600 yuan/ton; the preliminary maintenance equipment has resumed normal production, and the overall supply of soda ash has increased; Affected by the low spot price of soda ash, downstream purchases at low prices and on-demand prices. They are resistant to high prices and are more cautious about stocking; the market transaction atmosphere is light, and the overall operation remains weak and stable.
Futures dynamics
According to Boduo data, the opening price of SA2501, the main contract for soda ash, on August 16, was 1588 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 1582 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.25% within the day. The intraday high was 1634 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1578 yuan/ton, with a total position of 827200 lots, a month-on-month +13713 lots.
Today, soda ash futures prices mainly surged high and fell back. Yesterday's night trading was affected by a higher-than-expected recovery in U.S. retail sales data and employment data, which further dispelled market concerns about a U.S. economic recession, and global risk assets immediately rebounded. However, for domestically priced commodities, the emotional expectation of a rebound in external demand could not offset the pessimistic continuation of weak reality, and the market immediately retracted the increase. The fundamentals of soda ash itself have not yet seen significant effective improvements. The decline in output on the supply side cannot improve the ability of the demand side to undertake. Although some downstream parties are willing to replenish stocks at low prices, it is difficult to form a strong market drive. The follow-up focus will still be on whether terminal demand can improve during the peak season, and whether the price of soda ash itself can temporarily stop falling and stabilize after accelerating its bottom to boost downstream purchasing sentiment.
market outlook
Maintenance plans are still in place in the future, and production and start-up will be adjusted. However, the demand side is weak and difficult to change, and downstream enthusiasm for obtaining goods needs to be restored. It is expected that prices may continue to operate weak in the short term.
