PVC: The futures price has been significantly reduced by more than 93,000 lots, and the market for shifting positions to the month appears, and the spot is running at a low level.

PVC Futures Analysis:V2409 contract opening price: 5399, highest price: 5444, lowest price: 5366, position: 614667, settlement price: 5408, yesterday settlement: 5444, down 36, daily trading volume: 742880 lots, precipitated capital: 2.673 billion, capital outflow: 786 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

PVC spot market:The mainstream transaction price of the domestic PVC market continues to run low, and the atmosphere is obviously weak. Compared with the valuation, the high-end in North China rose by 10 yuan / ton, the high-end in East China fell by 20 yuan / ton, South China fell by 30-50 yuan / ton, the low end of Northeast China fell by 50 yuan / ton, and Central China fell by 20 yuan / ton. Southwest China is stable. Most of the upstream PVC production enterprises'ex-factory prices are stable, even if the ex-factory prices are basically low, but there are still few contracts signed. In such a weak market, in the face of the spot market with lower prices, businesses are not willing to hoard goods and copy the bottom. The futures market is arranged in a low and narrow range, the spot market price and spot price coexist, the part of the trader's offer price is lower than that of yesterday, and the high price is difficult to close, and the basis offer part is stronger, of which the East China basis offer 09 contract-(50-100), South China 09 contract + (100), North 09 contract-(200-250), Southwest 09 contract-480 or 01 contract-620. Compared with the previous point price supply part still has a price advantage, but the downstream procurement enthusiasm is not good.

From the perspective of futures:The night price of the PVC2409 contract rose slightly from its low, but not by much. After the start of morning trading, futures prices first rose and then fell, intraday lows were refreshed again, and afternoon prices rose slightly, but they were still insufficient. 2409 contracts fluctuated from 5366 to 5444 throughout the day, with a spread of 78. 009 contracts reduced by 93237 positions, with 614667 positions so far, 2501 contracts closing at 5605, and positions of 482634 hands.

PVC Future Forecast:

In terms of futures:The low point of the futures price of the PVC2409 contract continues to refresh the lowest point 5366, the technical level shows that the low point of the futures price breaks the lower track position for the third time, the openings of the Bollinger belt (13, 13, 2) are all downward, showing an obvious trend of short arrangement, and the dead fork trend of the MACD line at the daily level expands. Today's trading shows an obvious trend of changing positions by more than 93000 hands, regardless of the fluctuation of the futures price. Increase and decrease positions show a continuous low operation to refresh the low point trend, PVC contract air distribution role is obvious, and in the overall plasticizing plate, the 3P price spread further expanded. In the short term as a whole, we still maintain our previous view, observing the support performance of the 2501 contract low of 5500 and 09 contract 5300-5400 range.

Spot aspect:At present, the performance of the two markets is still weak. first of all, the low point of the futures market continues to refresh, and the market also shows obvious short arrangement, and in the 09 contract, which is dominated by short positions for a long time, the reduction of positions does not show a rebound trend, and the strength of the 09 contract has disappeared. From the point of view of itself and past experience, there has been the expectation of gold, silver and silver before the end of the 09 contract, but under the current time point. On the contrary, it shows a state of continuous downturn. The speed of supply digestion in PVC spot market is slow, and the restriction of high inventory is obvious. The price of crude oil futures fell in the outer disk, halting the previous five-game upward trend as traders eased concerns about rising tensions in the Middle East. In addition, the International Energy Agency lowered its forecast for demand growth, which also dragged down oil prices. On the whole, the current weak market of PVC can only rely on the emergence of policies, so the spot market of PVC will still be sorted out at a low level before the mood.