Daily Review of Urea: Good emotions impact the market, and companies 'willingness to adjust prices weakens (August 14)

Domestic urea price index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on August 14 was 2,171.36, a decrease of 4.09 from yesterday, a month-on-month decrease of 0.19% and a year-on-year decrease of 14.00%.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of the Urea UR409 contract is 2038, the highest price is 2044, the lowest price is 1992, the settlement price is 2017, and the closing price is 53% lower than the settlement price of the previous trading day, down 2.57% month-on-month. The fluctuation range throughout the day is 1992-2044; the basis of the 09 contract in Shandong is 98; the 09 contract has reduced its position by 22364 lots today, and so far, the position is 62785 lots.

Urea futures prices fell sharply today, mainly due to the impact of the decline in overall commodity market sentiment, which led to lower opening and lower moving, and speculative funds mainly left the market. In the short term, there is limited improvement in the main logic of strong supply and weak demand for urea itself. Coupled with the fact that urea companies have accumulated a large amount of cash this week, the weak market logic continues to confirm that urea itself has limited improvement in the short term, and the main contract in the futures market is approaching delivery or temporarily follows the market. Environmental funds are mainly leaving the market.

Spot market analysis:

Today, the domestic urea market price fell slightly. The sentiment affected the market. Companies 'willingness to adjust prices weakened. In addition, shipping pressure was relatively low. Quotes were stable and consolidated, with limited decline.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China have stabilized at 2,130 - 2,170 yuan/ton. Prices in East China fell to 2,100 - 2,150 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China fell to 2,090 - 2,280 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles stabilized at 2,160 - 2,230 yuan/ton. Prices in North China fell to 2,000 - 2,160 yuan/ton. Prices in South China have stabilized at 2,240 - 2,300 yuan/ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 2,170 - 2,230 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,100 - 2,500 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of factories, manufacturers in some mainstream regions have increased their transaction prices at low prices, and the order acquisition situation has improved. Most new orders have been followed up on a general basis. Currently, manufacturers still have many orders to place, and a small number of new orders are being received in the process of shipment. In terms of the market, the sentiment on the market was strong and volatile under the influence of the news of the printing and labeling, and the attitude of the industry was mostly wait-and-see, which boosted the domestic market to temporarily strengthen and pushed some low-priced sources to sell goods. However, the overall transaction was still tepid, and the market continued to be deadlocked. On the supply side, some equipment in the industry have been repaired, and supply has been tightened in the short term and will gradually recover in the later period. Some parking companies are expected to gradually resume production next week. On the demand side, downstream follow-up mentality is cautious, purchasing is slow, and centralized purchasing on the demand side is more difficult. Most of them maintain on-demand purchasing and on-demand purchasing. Internationally, it is reported that India may issue a new round of urea bidding announcements in the near future. The Indian bidding news has affected the sentiment of operators in the market, and the sentiment has driven the sporadic transactions of new orders in the market.

On the whole, the current urea market has been boosted by the news. The number of new orders in the market has increased. Companies have a strong mentality for a short period of time and their quotations have remained stable. It is expected that the urea market price will be stable in the short period of time, and the price adjustment will be small.