[Soda ash]8.13 Soda ash Daily Review: Soda ash market trend is weak

Analysis of soda ash market

Today, the domestic soda ash market is weak. As of now, the price of light soda ash in South China is between 1,900 - 1,950 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is between 2,000 - 2,100 yuan/ton; the price of light soda ash in Northwest China is between 1,450 - 1,550 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is between 1,500 - 1,600 yuan/ton; as the alkali plant resumed operation in the early stage of maintenance, the overall start has rebounded; There are still some production lines in the downstream glass industry that are undergoing cold repairs, and the demand for heavy alkali continues to weaken. The inventory pressure of some companies has not eased, and the production and sales situation is weak. The overall transaction atmosphere in the soda ash market is general, and the wait-and-see attitude remains strong.

Futures dynamics

According to Boduo data, the opening price of SA2409, the main contract for soda ash, on August 13, was 1690 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 1658 yuan/ton, an increase of-1.84% within the day. The highest intraday session was 1690 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1653 yuan/ton, with a total position of 499203 lots, a month-on-month period of-43528 lots.

Today, soda ash futures prices continued to be weak and downward. This week, the spot market quotations of some manufacturers were lowered again, the focus of support for futures prices gradually shifted, and downstream glass companies once again showed signs of accelerating cold repairs. In addition, the release of domestic economic data last month was repeatedly delayed, which may indicate that the actual data fell short of market expectations and the macro sentiment was simultaneously weak. In the short term, it is difficult to drive improvement before the logic of increasing supply and decreasing demand in the soda ash market is broken. In the future, we still need to pay attention to whether various downstream demands can improve during the peak season. Until then, soda ash prices may still remain weak.

market outlook

Maintenance plans are still in place in the future, and output will be slightly reduced; but downstream demand is still weak. Before market sentiment changes significantly, soda ash fundamentals will continue to be under pressure, and prices may be weak in the short term.