Methanol: Market negative sentiment is obvious. The methanol period continues to be weak

On August 12, the methanol market price index was 2107.42, 16.22% lower than the previous working day, and 0.76% lower than the previous working day.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on August 9:

China CFR 290-292USD / ton, Ping

Us FOB 102-103 cents per gallon, up 2 cents per gallon

Southeast Asia is closed.

European FOB 323-324 euros / ton, up 1 euro / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2120-2180 (- 80), north route: 2010-2050 (- 20), south route: 2070 (0), Lunan: 2310 (0), Henan: 2260-2280 (- 10), Shanxi: 2150-2260 (0), port: 4102425 (- 40)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 230-290 (5amp 10), Northern Route-Southern Shandong 285-330 (0amp 0), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 250-280 (10ax 10), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 170-240 (0max 0)

Spot marketToday, the methanol market price continues to fall, and the futures market continues to decline, which has a certain negative impact on the mindset of the market operators, and the performance of the market demand downstream of the terminal is still poor, the market transaction atmosphere is light, and the operators mainly buy at low prices. Low-price resources are OK. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas has been lowered along with it, with the quotation on the south line around 2070 yuan / ton, the price on the north line around 2010-2050 yuan / ton, and the low end down by 20 yuan / ton. with the return of some methanol plants to production, the market supply has increased narrowly, and some manufacturers have a certain demand for shipments. coupled with the downward volatility of the futures market, the market is bearish and wait-and-see mood is strong, and the market transaction atmosphere is limited. The market prices in Shandong, the main consumer area, are arranged in a narrow range, with 2310 yuan / ton in southern Shandong and 2300-2330 yuan / ton in northern Shandong. The volatility of the main futures market is weak, the wait-and-see mood of operators is strong, and the trading atmosphere on the market weakens. The market quotation in North China is temporarily stable. Hebei quotation is 2270-2290 yuan / ton today, which is stable. The enthusiasm of the operators in the market to replenish goods is not high, and the market wait-and-see mood is strong. Shanxi quotes 2150-2260 yuan / ton today. The purchasing enthusiasm of downstream manufacturers is not high, and the trading atmosphere in the methanol market is light at the beginning of the week.

Port marketToday, methanol futures are weak and volatile. There are few spot negotiations. In recent months, rigid demand bargain to pick up goods, the basis is weak; long-term multi-contract negotiations, arbitrage buying mainly, the basis is stable, the deal is OK. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2410-2415, basis 09-5 position 8 in transaction: 2415-2425, base difference 09-9-23 pound 25-9 transaction: 2450-2465, basis difference 09-45.

Future forecast:At present, the mainland market equipment overhaul and restart co-exist, but the recovery capacity is more than the maintenance capacity, the mainland market supply is still abundant, and the futures market continues to decline, to a certain extent, heavy industry bearish mood, recently, some downstream olefin units are restarted, local market demand may improve, but the demand for methanol is relatively limited, the demand side is difficult to recover significantly in the short term. At present, the weak demand still affects the main factors of the methanol price trend, and the overall market atmosphere is still empty. It is expected that the methanol market price will continue to be weak in the short term, but we should pay attention to the coal price in the later stage. The operation of the plant in the field and the downstream demand follow up.