Methanol: Futures market fluctuated at a low level and the spot market stabilized and moved slightly

On Aug. 9, the methanol market price index was 2123.64, down 1.9% from yesterday and 0.09% from the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on August 8:

China CFR 284-286 US dollars / ton, down 2 US dollars / ton

Us FOB 100,101cents per gallon, flat

Southeast Asian CFR 345-346 US dollars / ton, down 1 US dollars / ton

European FOB 322-323 euros / ton, flat.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2200 (0), North: 2030-3080 (0), South: 2070 (0), Lunan: 2310 (0), Henan: 2270-2280 (0), Shanxi: 2150-2260 (0), Port: 2450-2455 (- 15)

Freight:

Northern Route-Northern Shandong 225-280 (10thumb 0), Northern Route-Southern Shandong 285-330 (5thumb 0), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 240-270 (0amp 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 170-240 (0max 20)

Spot marketToday, the methanol market price is stable and small, the futures market continues to be weak, the market is obviously bearish, and the downstream market demand performance is poor, and some operators purchase more and lower prices and other operations. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas is adjusted narrowly, with the quotation on the southern route around 2070 yuan / ton and the northern line around 2030-2080 yuan / ton. with the return of some methanol plants to production, the market supply increases narrowly, and some manufacturers have a certain demand for shipments. however, the downstream market demand is limited, and the market trading atmosphere is low. The market prices in Shandong, the main consumer area, are arranged in a narrow range, with 2310 yuan / ton in southern Shandong and 2310-2320 yuan / ton in northern Shandong. The volatility of the main futures market is weak, the wait-and-see mood of operators is strong, the mentality of operators entering the market and replenishment is cautious, and the trading atmosphere on the market weakens. The market quotation in North China is running stably for the time being. Hebei quotes 2270-2290 yuan / ton today, maintaining that yesterday, the enthusiasm of market operators entering the market to replenish stock is not high, and the market wait-and-see mood is strong. Shanxi quoted 2150-2260 yuan / ton today, the futures market trend is not good, operators buy up or not buy down sentiment highlights, market transactions are mainly rigid demand.

Port marketMethanol futures rebounded slightly today. Spot and near-end bargain receiving, selling commission price for sale. The long-term high shipments have increased, and the current basis has weakened. The overall transaction throughout the day is not bad. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2450-2455, base difference 09-5 Maximus 8 position 8 transaction: 2460-2470, base difference 09-5 Universe 10 transaction 8 transaction: 2470-2485, base difference 09-20 Universe 22 cross 9 transaction: 2485-2505, base difference 09-40 Universe 42 primes 01-5.

Future forecast:At present, plant maintenance and restart coexist in the mainland market, but the recovery capacity is more than the maintenance capacity, the supply in the mainland market may still be abundant, and the supply in the mainland market may still be abundant. And at present, under the influence of the off-season of consumption and poor profitability, it is difficult to recover obviously in the short term, but some downstream olefin units restart and operate stably. In the later period, there are still olefin units in Tianjin and Nanjing, and the start of the main downstream industry is slightly supporting the local area. At present, weak demand still affects the main factors of methanol price trend, and the futures market continues to operate at a low level, which drags on the mentality of operators, and the enthusiasm of operators to enter the market to replenish stocks is not high. It is expected that methanol market prices will continue to run weakly next week, but in the later stage, attention should be paid to coal prices, plant operation in the field and downstream demand follow-up.