PVC: Futures lows are approaching the lower track position. Who should sue for loneliness? Spot adjustment is slightly adjusted

PVC Futures Analysis:V2409 contract opening price: 5566, highest price: 5613, lowest price: 5540, position: 725581, settlement price: 5575, yesterday settlement: 5604, down 29, daily trading volume: 653108 lots, precipitated capital: 2.815 billion, capital outflow: 113 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

PVC spot market:The mainstream transaction prices in the domestic PVC market are mainly adjusted slightly, and some of them give way to profits. Compared with the valuation, the high end of North China rose 20 yuan / ton, East China fell 20 yuan / ton, South China fell 30 yuan / ton, Northeast China was stable, Central China was stable, Southwest China was stable. The ex-factory prices of upstream PVC production enterprises mostly remain stable, with a small reduction of 50 yuan / ton, including simultaneous price reduction in remote libraries. At a time when there are not many contracts signed on Friday, the merchants have a heavy wait-and-see mentality, the futures low is weak again, the market is not working well, the spot price and one-bite price coexist, the spot price advantage is obvious after the futures price goes down, and the basis continues to narrow slightly. Among them, East China basis offer 09 contract-(80-130-150), South China 09 contract-(50, Pingshui, + 50), North 09 contract-(250-330-400) Southwest 09 contract-(150-250). On the whole, the operation of the spot market is weak, the purchasing enthusiasm of the downstream is not high for the time being, and the spot transaction is weak.

From the perspective of futures:The night market price of PVC2409 contract is arranged on a small scale, and there is nothing new to run inside the market. After the start of morning trading, futures prices rose slightly, but the overall increase was small, and afternoon prices fell again to refresh their lows. 2409 contracts fluctuated from 5540 to 5613 throughout the day, with a spread of 73 and 09 contracts reducing positions by 26122 positions, with 725581 positions so far, 2501 contracts closing at 5728 and 385497 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

In terms of futures:The operation of the futures price of the PVC2409 contract continues to refresh the low, with the lowest point of 5540 today, down 1124 points since the high of 6664 on May 24, and the low point continues to brush the recent two-year low, the disk continues to show a state of reducing positions, the technical level shows that the opening of the third track of the Bollinger belt (13, 13, 2) has expanded slightly, and the daily KD line and MACD line show a dead-fork trend. Friday period showed a long shadow line of the negative column, in terms of transactions, which open 23.0% compared to 20.3% more. 09 contract showed an obvious short trend before the end, even if the position reduction is still down, the operation of futures prices in the short term continues to observe the support performance of the low range of 5500-5550.

Spot aspect:In the overall market for changing positions and changing months, 09 contracts show a weaker trend compared with the previous main contracts, and even the departure dominated by short sellers did not cause a small rebound in futures prices, but the futures price lows continue to refresh, and some supply quotations in the spot market are on the low side, on the one hand, the weak pattern of the two cities has been determined, on the other hand, in the overall poor macro mood, PVC is obviously empty. PVC supply and demand fundamentals still maintain the previous high supply and weak demand, social inventory remains high. In the outer disk, international oil prices closed higher for the third consecutive session as U.S. jobs data eased demand concerns and the war in the Middle East helped oil prices recover from an eight-month low hit on Monday. On the whole, the current spot market lacks sufficient favorable guidance, and prices will still be low and weak.