Daily Review of Urea: Low market prices follow up with incremental increases, corporate quotations rebounded slightly (August 8)

Domestic urea price index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on August 8 was 2,185.91, a decrease of 2.73 from yesterday, a month-on-month decrease of 0.12% and a year-on-year decrease of 12.24%.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of urea UR409 contract is 2030, the highest price is 2038, the lowest price is 2009, the settlement price is 2021, and the closing price is 2019. The closing price is 3 lower than the settlement price of the previous trading day, down 0.15% month-on-month. The fluctuation range of the whole day is 2009-2038; the basis of the 09 contract in Shandong is 81; the 09 contract has reduced its position by 5852 lots today, and so far, it has held 100127 lots.

Today, urea futures prices mainly open higher and lower with the market environment. The logic of strong supply and weak demand for urea itself continues. Short-term memory supply and demand problems are supported by repeated supply and demand problems and low inventory in the industry. However, it has not yet been able to form an effective upward drive. The superimposed space above is suppressed by various types, and the short-term urea itself lacks driving price fluctuations. More changes mainly follow the overall commodity market sentiment.

Spot market analysis:

Today, the domestic urea market price is stabilizing and consolidating, with some orders rising slightly after closing. Industry supply is consolidating at a high level. Trading is still flat. There is limited follow-up by industry operators, and it is difficult for prices to continue to rise.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China have stabilized at 2,150 - 2,190 yuan/ton. Prices in East China rose to 2,100 - 2,170 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China has risen to 2,120 - 2,300 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles has stabilized at 2,160 - 2,230 yuan/ton. Prices in North China fell to 2010- 2,200 yuan/ton. Prices in South China fell to 2,260 - 2,320 yuan/ton. Prices in Northwest China fell to 2,170 - 2,250 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,100 - 2,500 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of factories, after the offer was lowered, the situation of some manufacturers receiving low-cost orders improved, and other peripheral areasspecifications, imagesContinue to reduce, and prices may rebound slightly steadily under the support of short-term orders. In terms of the market, the transaction atmosphere at the low-end market has become stronger than in the previous period, but the mentality of the operators is still cautious and has not completely improved yet. The increase in transaction volume is limited. In the short term, with the transaction of new orders, the focus of market negotiations may shift slightly. On the supply side, due to the sudden failure of some equipment, industry start-ups dropped slightly, with a daily output slightly below 170,000 tons. However, the overall supply side continued to be consolidated at a high level, and corporate inventories remained stable this week with little change. On the demand side, downstream purchases on dips and purchases appropriately. The mood remains cautious. The current low price follow-up is still acceptable, and the demand for short-term purchases still exists.

On the whole, after the current price cut in the urea market, downstream enthusiasm for low-cost procurement has increased, and companies have followed up with new orders. Driven by emotions, it is expected that urea market prices will show signs of steady and moderate growth in the short term. However, the supply side is loose and prices will continue to rise. Limited.