Methanol: The methanol period continues to be weak and the transaction volume on the market is limited

On Aug. 6, the methanol market price index was 2125.81, down 12.42 from yesterday and 0.58 per cent lower than yesterday.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on August 5:

China CFR 295-296 US dollars / ton, up 1 US dollars / ton

Us FOB 100,101cents per gallon, flat

CFR in Southeast Asia: us $345-346 per ton, Ping

European FOB 316-317 euros / ton, down 7 euros / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2200-2200 (0), North Route: 2020-2080 (- 20), Lunan: 2330 (- 20), Henan: 2290-2295 (- 10), Shanxi: 2190-2280 (0), Port: 2475-2500 (- 10)

Freight:

Northern Route-Northern Shandong 210-280 (0ax 10), Northern Route-Southern Shandong 250-280 (0ax 10), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 250-280 (0ax 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 170-220 (0max 10)

Spot marketToday, the price of methanol market continues to be weak, and the futures market continues to be weak, which is a drag on the mentality of operators to a certain extent, and with the recovery and stable operation of parking devices in the previous period, the supply in some areas has increased, but the terminal demand is still poor. The enthusiasm of operators to enter the market for replenishment is limited, and the market transaction atmosphere is light. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas are adjusted in a narrow range, with the quotation on the southern line around 2140 yuan / ton, the price on the northern line around 2020-2080 yuan / ton, and the lower end down by 20 yuan / ton, the futures market continues to run weakly, and the mindset of market operators is poor. The enthusiasm of downstream market replenishment is general, and more rigid demand procurement is given priority to. The market prices in Shandong, the main consumer area, are arranged in a narrow range, with 2330 yuan / ton in southern Shandong and 2310-2320 yuan / ton in northern Shandong. The volatility of the main futures market is weak, the wait-and-see mood of the industry is strong, the downstream remains in a depressed state, and the mentality of restocking in the market is cautious. The trading atmosphere on the market weakens. The market quotation in North China is adjusted narrowly. Hebei quotation is 2300-2340 yuan / ton today, maintaining yesterday, the downstream industry started poorly, the market transaction is mainly based on rigid demand, and the weak terminal demand has obvious restraint on methanol price; Shanxi quotes 2190-2280 yuan / ton today, the market sentiment is lack of confidence, and the market transaction atmosphere is limited.

Port marketToday, methanol futures range fluctuates. Spot trading is light. In recent months, arbitrage is the main shipment, buying cautious, the basis is slightly weak. Long-term part of the high shipments, the basis to maintain stability, afternoon talks stalemate, the overall transaction is general. Taicang main port transaction price: 8 transaction price: 2475-2500, basis 09: 13 prime 15: 8 transaction: 2485-2510, basis 09: 18 prime 25: 8 transaction: 2500-2520, base difference 09: 28 pm 33: 9 transaction: 2510-2535, basis difference 09: 45 pound 48.

Future forecast:The recent weak trend of methanol futures has dragged down the mentality of the operators in the market to a certain extent, coupled with the poor overall performance of methanol fundamentals, and some operators have obvious wait-and-see mood for the later period. From the perspective of the mainland market, with the restart and stable operation of the early maintenance equipment, the local market supply is expected to increase, but the downstream demand is still in the traditional consumption off-season, and it is difficult for the downstream demand to increase significantly in the short term. Operators enter the market to replenish more to maintain rigid demand procurement. At present, the fundamental performance of methanol is poor, and it is expected that the short-term methanol market price will continue to be weak and volatile, but in the later stage, we need to pay close attention to the operation of the plant in the field and the recovery of downstream demand.