Analysis of soda ash market
Today, the domestic soda ash market maintains a weak and stable operation. As of now, the price of light soda ash in North China is between 1,900 - 2,000 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is between 2,100 - 2,150 yuan/ton; the price of light soda ash in South China is between 2,050 - 2,100 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is between 2,150 - 2,250 yuan/ton; some soda plants have stopped for maintenance, and the market has been reduced within a narrow range; Downstream demand is still weak, with some of them mainly purchasing at low prices, and stocking is cautious; at the beginning of the month, soda ash companies followed up on new orders generally, and the overall market operation is weak.
Futures dynamics
According to Boduo data, the opening price of SA2409, the main contract for soda ash, on August 6, was 1779 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 1743 yuan/ton, an increase of-3.01% within the day. The highest intraday session was 1809 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1741 yuan/ton, with a total position of 636284 lots, a month-on-month period of-12527 lots.
Today, soda ash futures prices fell significantly with the weak sentiment of the overall commodity market. In the short term, the market will face the risk of shrinking overseas demand when domestic demand expectations are in doubt during the peak season. The market logic mainly revolves around weak reality. The pattern of strong supply and weak demand for soda ash itself continues. Considering the downstream undertaking capacity, it is difficult to see continuous positive feedback in the short term. Later, we can observe whether the demand in the terminal market can improve and the price boost transmitted to the raw material side.
market outlook
Maintenance plans are still in place in the future, and the supply side will decrease slightly; while downstream procurement willingness is not high, there is no obvious support on the demand side; the soda ash market is not driven upward and is expected to remain weak in the short term.
