Methanol: Futures market fluctuated and fell back, and the spot market was weak

On Aug. 2, the methanol market price index was 2138.16, down 22.2 from yesterday, down 1.05 per cent from the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on August 2:

China CFR 293-296USD / ton, Ping

Us FOB 100-101cents per gallon, down 1 cent per gallon

CFR in Southeast Asia: us $345-346 per ton, Ping

European FOB 323-324 euros / ton, flat.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2200 (0), North Route: 2040-2100 (- 15), Lunan: 2350 (0), Henan: 2280-2310 (- 20), Shanxi: 2190-2280 (0), Port: 2485-2500 (- 15)

Freight:

North Line-200-260 (0ax 0), North Line-South Shandong 270-310 (0max 0), South Line-North Shandong 250-270 (0max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 160-200 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, the methanol market price continues to be weak, the futures market is high, the spot market is narrowly down, the market transaction atmosphere is limited, the new prices of most manufacturers in the main production areas have not yet been issued, and the wait-and-see mood is obvious. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas have been adjusted in a narrow range, with quotations on the southern route around 2140 yuan / ton and the northern line around 2040-2100 yuan / ton. The futures market has fallen back at a high level, and the wait-and-see mood of the operators is obvious. there are still failed auctions in some enterprise auctions in the market today. The market prices in Shandong, the main consumer area, are arranged in a narrow range, with 2350 yuan / ton in southern Shandong and 2310-2330 yuan / ton in northern Shandong. The overall weak demand in the traditional downstream is still a drag, and the overall trading atmosphere is general. The market quotation in North China is adjusted narrowly. Hebei quotation today is 2300-2340 yuan / ton, maintaining yesterday, the new order transaction in the region is less; Shanxi today's quotation is 2190-2280 yuan / ton, the current downstream rigid demand replenishment is mainly, the market transaction atmosphere is limited.

Port market: methanol futures volatility is weak today. Spot offers are limited and purchased on demand. Within the month, paper goods arbitrage mainly, buy the right price to follow up, the basis is slightly stronger; a small amount of high shipments in the long term, the basis remains stable. The overall deal is OK. Taicang main Port transaction Price spot transaction: 2485-2490 Trading 8 on Trading: 2490-2500, basis 09: 13Universe 15: 8 Trading: 2490-2510, basis 09: 18Universe 25: 8Trading: 2500-2520, basis: 0928Universe 33 Trading: 2520-2535, basis 09: 45pm 48 Morning Futures consolidation.

Future forecast: from the perspective of the mainland market, the overall supply performance of the mainland market is abundant, and with the gradual restart of the previous maintenance equipment, the market supply is expected to increase, but the traditional downstream demand is still in the off-season of consumption. although there are operations such as the restart of olefin units, due to olefin manufacturers with matching methanol units and raw material stocks to be consumed, it is difficult to significantly increase downstream demand in the short term. The port market is still in a state of exhaustion, and in the later stage, with the arrival of imported shipments at the bottom of the port, it is difficult for the port market inventory to go out of stock significantly in the short term. At present, the downstream market is still in the off-season of consumption, it is difficult to significantly improve the start-up in the short term, the performance of methanol fundamentals is poor, it is expected that the short-term methanol market price will continue to be weak and volatile.

Recent operation of the plant