Caustic soda: The fundamentals are weak, the focus of spot prices has shifted downward, and futures prices have fluctuated slightly

Analysis of caustic soda futures:SH2409 contract opening price: 2460, highest price: 2469, lowest price: 2431, position: 56883, settlement price: 2452, yesterday settlement price: 2449, up: 3, closing price: 2447, daily trading volume: 86319 lots, precipitated capital: 551 million, capital outflow: 24.35 million.

Market price of caustic soda:

Spot analysis of caustic soda:Today, the price center of gravity in the domestic caustic soda market has moved down as a whole, and there has been a small increase in some cases, but it is difficult to reverse the overall weak market. At the beginning of the week, the market transaction atmosphere is weak, the merchant shipments are general, the downstream receiving situation is not ideal, most wait-and-see market. Today, prices in some areas of the liquid alkali market have fallen, while prices in some regions have risen slightly. From the point of view of price adjustment in various regions, 32% of ionic membrane alkali has individually increased by 10 yuan / ton. in some areas, the price of ionic membrane alkali has been reduced by 10-40 yuan / ton, and the price of 50% ionic membrane alkali has been reduced by 20-40 yuan / ton. the prices of other concentrations of alkali have almost remained stable, and the price range has not been significantly adjusted. In Shandong, the main producing area, the supply side is sufficient, but the downstream demand is insufficient, so the price is reduced, the downstream demand in some areas is not good, and the shipping situation of enterprises is not ideal, so the shipping price is lowered to promote shipping; some chlor-alkali enterprises in some areas are not profitable, so they have a certain pro-price mentality, so they raise the price slightly. The downstream demand in most other areas maintains the pace of lukewarm rigid demand procurement, the overall shipping situation of liquid alkali enterprises is general, and the supply and demand sides of each region are basically stable. Most of the upstream production enterprises wait and see to stabilize the price, and a few manufacturers adjust their quotations, and there are differences in the direction of price adjustment. Today, the ex-factory quotation of the tablet alkali market in Shandong has been lowered, and the center of gravity of the local market transaction price has also moved downwards. The market operation in most areas is temporarily stable, the market operation at the beginning of the week is cautious, and the enthusiasm of operators to enter the market is not high, mainly to wait and see the market.

Caustic soda futures analysis:Caustic soda SH2409 contract prices fluctuated up and down around 2450, night prices fluctuated, rebounded after a small dive in early trading, dived again in the afternoon, and then fluctuated downwards. As of today's close, SH2409 contracts fluctuated in the range of 2431-2469 throughout the day, with a price difference of 38 minus 09 contracts with a reduction of 1558 positions and 46883 positions so far.

Caustic soda index analysis:According to Tuduoduo data, on August 5, the domestic caustic soda index was 2764.65, down 14.91, or 0.537%, and the domestic caustic soda index fell.

Future forecast of caustic soda:

Spot aspect:In the liquid alkali market, the operation of most enterprise devices is stable, and a few devices are still in maintenance or load reduction production, but on the whole, the liquid alkali supply is relatively sufficient, there is no obvious favorable support for the market for the time being, and the downstream demand is still dull as a whole. the enthusiasm of receiving goods is general, and it is difficult for both supply and demand to boost the market. However, chlor-alkali enterprises in some areas are losing money, and enterprises have a certain price-fighting mentality. in addition, the price of liquid chlorine is lowered again at the beginning of the week, which may support the price to a certain extent. It is expected that the short-term liquid alkali market may continue to run with interval shocks. In the tablet alkali market, the price of tablet alkali in Shandong was lowered at the beginning of the week. at present, the mentality of operators in the tablet alkali market in various regions is still weak, and under the drag of weak demand downstream, although there are still equipment maintenance, it is difficult to effectively boost the market. The transaction situation of each regional market is poor, and the market mentality is relatively cautious. It is expected that there will be a reduction in transaction prices in some areas of the short-term tablet alkali market.

In terms of futures:Caustic soda SH2409 contract price fluctuated near the middle track, the futures price closed all day at the shadow line slightly longer negative column, the overall disk slightly reduced positions, long and short positions left the market is relatively obvious, today's trading situation: more than 16.1% vs. open 18.2%, empty 19.2% vs. 19.7%. The technical level shows that the opening of the three tracks of the Bolin belt (13, 13, 2) continues to narrow, the KD line at the daily line level shows a golden fork trend, and the MACD line also shows a golden fork trend and the trend expands. In the short term, we still need to pay attention to the performance near the middle track.

Caustic soda holds the list: