Methanol: Futures market was strong and volatile, and the spot market fell within a narrow range

On Aug. 2, the methanol market price index was 2160.96, down 9.54 from yesterday and 0.44 per cent from the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on August 1:

China CFR 293-295 US dollars / ton, up 2 US dollars / ton

Us FOB 101102cents / gallon, down 1 cent / gallon

CFR in Southeast Asia: us $345-346 per ton, Ping

European FOB 323-324 euros / ton, down 2 euros / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2200-2220 (0), North Route: 2070-2110 (- 15), Lunan: 2350 (0), Henan: 2300-2310 (- 10), Shanxi: 2190-2280 (0), Port: 2500 (5)

Freight:

North Route-200-260 Northern Shandong (0Uniqure 10), Northern Route-Southern Shandong 270-310 (0amp 0), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 250-270 (10amp 10), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 160-210 (0max 0)

Spot marketToday, methanol market prices fell within a narrow range, futures rebounded in the afternoon, and the trading atmosphere in the market was general. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas are adjusted in a narrow range, and the quotation on the southern line revolves around 2140 yuan / ton, maintaining yesterday, while the price on the northern line revolves around 2070-2110 yuan / ton, which is 15 yuan / ton lower than that of yesterday, and the futures market continues to rise, giving a slight boost to the market. the rigid demand for replenishment in the lower reaches is mainly due to the general trading atmosphere in the market as a whole. The market prices in Shandong, the main consumer area, are arranged in a narrow range, with 2350 yuan / ton in southern Shandong and 2350-2370 yuan / ton in northern Shandong. The overall weak demand in the traditional downstream is still a drag, and the overall trading atmosphere is general. North China market quotation narrow adjustment, Hebei quotation today 2300-2340 yuan / ton, maintain yesterday, the inventory pressure of manufacturers in the region is not great, but the downstream market demand performance is poor, market demand is difficult to improve; Shanxi quotation today 2190-2280 yuan / ton, futures market high shock, the mentality of the market still exists, downstream rigid demand replenishment, the market volume is limited.

Port marketToday, the morning futures consolidation. Near-end rigid demand negotiation. Long-term a small number of unilateral shipments, arbitrage buying mainly, the basis stabilized, afternoon atmosphere stalemate. The monthly price difference widened and the transaction was mediocre. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2500, basis 09: 2520, base difference 09: 10, transaction price: 2520-2530, basis difference: 09: 25, margin 28: 9: 2540-2555, basis: 09: 43: 45.

Future forecast:With the restart and stable operation of the previous maintenance equipment, the supply of the mainland market has increased compared with the previous period. However, the traditional downstream market is still in the off-season of consumption, methanol consumption has decreased accordingly, and the contradiction between supply and demand in the mainland market still exists in the short term. From the point of view of the port market, due to the influence of typhoon weather, the arrival of imported cargo has decreased compared with the previous period. Under the rigid demand of the mainstream reservoir area, the port inventory has been slightly removed this week. At present, the weak demand still affects the main factors affecting the methanol price trend, although some of the early parking units of the main downstream olefins are planned to restart in the later stage, which may give a slight boost to the methanol market, however, considering that some olefins have matching upstream and raw material stocks to be consumed, it is difficult for methanol demand to increase significantly in the short term, and it is expected that methanol market prices will continue to fluctuate next week.