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PVC Futures Analysis:V2409 contract opening price: 5684, highest price: 5716, lowest price: 5664, position: 798024, settlement price: 5691, yesterday settlement: 5714, down 23, daily trading volume: 476425 lots, precipitated capital: 3.184 billion, capital outflow: 45.29 million.
List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton
PVC spot market:The mainstream transaction price in the domestic PVC market moves steadily and slightly, and there is a small profit concession in the spot yard. Compared with the valuation, it fell by 20 yuan / ton in North China, 20 yuan / ton in East China, 1020 yuan / ton in South China, stable in Northeast China, 20 yuan / ton in Central China and stable in Southwest China. The factory price of upstream PVC production enterprises coincides with Friday, coupled with the lack of disk trend, there is no obvious ex-factory price adjustment, a generation of contracts signed not many businesses hold a wait-and-see mentality. Futures market trend narrow collation, the spot market price adjustment yesterday is not much, individual merchants for smooth delivery of goods to negotiate 10-20 yuan / ton. Spot basis offers are stable today, including 09 contracts in East China-(100-180-200), 09 contracts in South China-(50-100 and Pingshui), 09 contracts in North China-(380), and 09 contracts in Southwest China-(150-250). On the whole, there is a price advantage in the spot price transaction part, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is low, and the overall transaction atmosphere is weak.
From the perspective of futures:The price of the PVC2409 contract opened slightly higher in night trading, but not enough. After the start of morning trading, the price fluctuated mainly in a narrow range, with no obvious fluctuation direction, and continued to sort out in a small range in the afternoon, but today's high did not exceed that of yesterday. 2409 contracts fluctuated from 5664 to 5713 throughout the day, with a spread of 49. 09. The contract reduced its position by 13771 lots, with 798024 positions so far, with 2501 contracts closing at 5887 and 301584 positions.
PVC Future Forecast:
In terms of futures:The operation of the futures price of PVC2409 contract is relatively narrow, from the total transaction volume, the market is not active, and then the narrow adjustment is lack of a certain long-empty direction. Multi-open and empty, and the corresponding multi-flat does not reflect the trend. The technical level shows that the opening of the three tracks of the Bolin belt (13,13,2) is still obvious downward, but the KD line at the daily line level shows a golden fork trend, and the distance between the two lines of the MACD line is shortened. 5601 of the futures price continues to fall after the lowest point, and the market of changing positions and changing months begins to be ushered in after entering August, so we think that the 09 contracts are treated cautiously, but the upward price lacks momentum. In the short term, the operation of futures prices observed the performance of the low range of 5640-5750.
Spot aspect:After entering August, the market began to move positions and change months, but from the point of view of the operation of the former main contract, although the former contract also showed a weak performance before the end, 09 contract showed a weaker operation trend after refreshing the low point from the current situation. Therefore, it can be seen that when the fundamentals of the two cities are short, neither the futures price nor the spot market price can be reversed. With the help of the upside of the Politburo meeting during the week, on the one hand, the range is insufficient, on the other hand, the time is relatively short. PVC fundamentals, calcium carbide prices in the main production areas are low, PVC plant start-up load increased slightly, but demand constraints of the emergence of high inventory has always affected the spot price. The current macro commodity sentiment trend is not good, there is no new external force and policy further stimulation, it is expected that the PVC spot market will continue to be low in the short term.
