[Soda ash] Soda ash Weekly Review: The market continues to be weak and the focus of transactions moves downward

1. Analysis of domestic soda ash market

This week, the domestic soda ash spot market is operating weakly. As of Thursday, the domestic price of light soda ash is between 1,700 - 2,000 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is between 1,800 - 2,100 yuan/ton. There are no maintenance plans during the week, and supply remains high. Due to weakening market sentiment, the shipping pressure of enterprises has increased, with inventories increasing within a narrow range and light soda being higher than heavy soda; Profits of major downstream products continue to lose money, and most of them maintain low prices for transactions. The market sentiment is strong, and the focus of transactions has shifted; However, the prices of some upstream raw materials have been lowered, and the cost center of gravity has fluctuated within a narrow range. However, as soda ash prices fell more, the company's production profits continued to shrink; the short-term market lacked actual driving forces or maintained weak and stable operations.

In terms of futures, soda ash prices continued to fluctuate within a range after moving downward along with spot quotes during the week. The short-term soda ash market itself lacks actual driving forces, and price fluctuations are more consistent with the overall market sentiment. After the main contract is approaching delivery, capital behaviors such as shifting positions for months have also intensified market volatility. The logic of soda ash itself has not changed significantly in the short term, but attention needs to be paid to whether the overall commodity market can stabilize and match the expectations of the peak season.

Forecast for next week:Subsequent maintenance plans may lead to a reduction in supply or improve the production and sales of soda plants to a certain extent; however, downstream demand is still weak, procurement is cautious, and the transaction atmosphere is light. Prices are expected to remain weak and stable in the short term. Specific attention should be paid to the middle and downstream stocking mood at the beginning of the month.

2. Comparison of market prices of soda ash in regions

Unit: yuan/ton

3. Soda ash process profit statement

As of August 1 this week, the profit of the combined alkali method was 445 yuan/ton, down 73 yuan/ton from the previous week; the profit of the ammonia-alkali method was 240 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan/ton from the previous week.

4. Equipment maintenance of soda ash enterprises

About 90.10% of the soda ash industry started this week, an increase of 1.81% from last week. According to incomplete statistics, the output of soda ash manufacturers this week is about 754,900 tons.

5. Soda ash manufacturer inventory

The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers this week was 1.073 million tons, which was around 985,600 tons last week, a month-on-month increase of 87,400 tons, an increase of 8.15%.