Methanol: Port spot rises with market, mainland market continues to be weak

On July 31, the methanol market price index was 2171.34, down 18.36 from yesterday, down 0.84 per cent from the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on July 30:

China CFR 288-291 US dollars / ton, down 4 US dollars / ton

Us FOB 102-103 cents per gallon, down 1 cent per gallon

Southeast Asia 345-346 US dollars / ton, down 2 US dollars / ton

European FOB 320-321 Euro / ton, flat.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2200-2220 (0), North Route: 2085-2120 (- 35), Lunan: 2355 (0), Henan: 2300-2325 (20), Shanxi: 2190-2280 (0), Port: 2495-2500 (35)

Freight:

North Route-North Shandong 205-260 (- 5amp 0), North Line-South Shandong 270-310 (0amp 0), South Line-North Shandong 210-260 (- 10max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 160-210 (0ram Mueller 10)

Spot marketToday, the trend of the methanol market is different, the futures market stops falling but rises, the port spot market adjusts with the market, the market transaction atmosphere is general, the mainland market is weak and volatile under the influence of weak demand, and the rigid demand of operators is mainly replenishment. Some manufacturers mainly reduce the inventory pressure and reduce the price. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas is adjusted in a narrow range, with the price on the southern line around 2140 yuan / ton, the low end down by 10 yuan / ton, and the price on the northern line around 2085-2120 yuan / ton, which is 35 yuan / ton lower than yesterday, and the futures market has stopped falling and rising, giving a slight boost to the market. Yulin area auction companies traded well in the morning, but the transaction price was lower than that of last week, and the downstream rigid demand was mainly replenished. The market prices in Shandong, the main consumer area, are arranged in a narrow range, with 2355 yuan / ton in southern Shandong and 2350-2550 yuan / ton in northern Shandong. The downstream market demand is general. Under rigid demand, the market transaction atmosphere is limited. The market quotation in North China is adjusted in a narrow range. Hebei quotation is 2300-2340 yuan / ton today, while the lower end is reduced by 10 yuan / ton. the inventory pressure of manufacturers in the region is not great, but the downstream market demand performance is poor, and the market demand is difficult to improve; Shanxi quotes 2190-2280 yuan / ton today, and most operators hold a strong wait-and-see mood, and methanol futures are rising instead, giving manufacturers some support.

Port marketMethanol futures rebounded at the bottom today. Spot rigid demand negotiations; on-demand purchasing within the month, careful delivery of orders; far month unilateral high shipments, arbitrage buying, the basis is weak. The idea of replacement continues, and the deal is mediocre. Taicang main port transaction price: 8 transaction price: 2500-2515, basis difference 09: 21: 22: 8 transaction: 2515-2530, basis difference 09: 39: 9 transaction price: 2530-2540, basis difference 09: 50 pound 52.

Future forecast:With the restart of the previous maintenance equipment, the supply in some parts of the mainland market is expected to increase, and some manufacturers in the field reduce the price in order to reduce the inventory pressure, but considering that the overall inventory pressure of the manufacturers is not great at present, the enterprise has less room for profit. However, in the later period, the units such as Changqing, Shenmu, Mingshui and Hebi run smoothly, and the pressure on the supply side of the methanol market in some areas is expected to increase. At present, the terminal downstream market demand is still in the off-season of consumption, and the overall performance of the demand side is poor. At present, the short-term methanol market price is expected to adjust in a narrow range, but in the later stage, we should pay attention to the coal price, the operation of the plant in the field and the follow-up of downstream demand.