Daily review of urea: Increase in low-price transactions in the market, corporate quotations rose slightly (July 31)

Domestic urea price index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on July 31 was 2,205.00, an increase of 7.73 from yesterday, a month-on-month increase of 0.35% and a year-on-year decrease of 12.47%.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of the urea UR409 contract is 2034, the highest price is 2056, the lowest price is 2026, the settlement price is 2040, and the closing price is 2043. The closing price is 19% higher than the settlement price of the previous trading day, and the month-on-month increase is 0.94%. The fluctuation range of the whole day is 2026-2056; the basis of the 09 contract in Shandong is 107; the 09 contract has reduced its position by 7428 lots today, and so far, the position is 132007 lots.

Today, the urea futures market continues to be strong. The market sentiment driven by yesterday's export news continues to stabilize the overall macro atmosphere today. The downstream purchasing sentiment in the spot market has been driven. Companies have better orders at low prices, and the market has formed a certain positive feedback market. However, we need to pay attention to the persistent issues supported by market sentiment in the market outlook.

Spot market analysis:

Today, the domestic urea market price has increased slightly, and companies have better orders at low prices. Downstream follow-up replenishment is expected to increase. Coupled with the reduction of the industry's daily production, the quotation has increased slightly.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China have stabilized at 2,150 - 2,190 yuan/ton. Prices in East China rose to 2,120 - 2,190 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China has risen to 2,120 - 2,300 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles has stabilized at 2,180 - 2,210 yuan/ton. Prices in North China rose to 2,040 - 2,200 yuan/ton. Prices in South China rose to 2,250 - 2,340 yuan/ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 2,240 - 2,330 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,100 - 2,500 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of factories, after manufacturers 'quotations continued to be lowered, the situation of receiving orders for low-priced goods was better, and the number of companies waiting for orders increased. The pressure on early shipments was slightly relieved. Under the support of short-term waiting, the quotations were firm and slightly increased. In terms of the market, after prices continued to fall, the increase in transactions at the low-end of the market slightly boosted the trading atmosphere of the industry. The market was stable and fluctuated. However, the overall follow-up atmosphere remained flat, and the market operation continued to be deadlocked. On the supply side, the industry's capacity utilization rate declined, the daily output dropped to below 180,000 tons, and the market supply dropped slightly. On the demand side, after the price rises, the downstream follow-up mentality is cautious, follow-up in more and appropriate amounts, and wait-and-see mentality. The demand for raw materials in compound fertilizer factories is gradually increasing, and there is still room for follow-up replenishment in the later period.

On the whole, the current urea market is mostly traded at low prices. After receiving orders, the company's quotations are firm and slightly rising. The downstream follow-up atmosphere is wait-and-see. In the market stalemate game, there is a lack of continued positive benefits to support the market. It is expected that the urea market price will stabilize in a short period of time. Consolidation, it will be difficult to continue to move upwards.