PVC: Futures have a good upward trend. Are they bottoming out? The spot market tentatively pushes up

PVC Futures Analysis:July 31 V2409 contract opening price: 5612, highest price: 5710, lowest price: 5601, position: 831093, settlement price: 5660, yesterday settlement: 5638, down 22, daily trading volume: 694695 lots, precipitated capital: 3.315 billion, capital outflow: 200 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

PVC spot market:Domestic PVC market mainstream transaction prices rose slightly, the market atmosphere warmed up. Compared with the valuation, it rose 20 yuan / ton in North China, 20 yuan / ton in East China, 20 yuan / ton in South China, 10 yuan / ton in Northeast China, 20 yuan / ton in Central China and 20 yuan / ton in Southwest China. The ex-factory price of the upstream PVC production enterprises did not follow the upward trend of the futures market, but maintained a stable quotation to actively digest inventory, while the production enterprises waited and saw to stabilize the price. The daily futures price is up, and the price offered by merchants in various regions is tentatively higher than that of yesterday, and the point price and the price coexist. At present, there is a certain positive offer on the basis, including the basis offer 09 contract in East China-(100-180-200). South China 09 contract-(50-100 and Pingshui) pre-sale August-September 01 contract-(180-280) North 09 contract-(330-350) pre-sale August-September 01 contract-(450), Southwest 09 contract-(250-300). The regional base gap narrowed further, but the transaction became weaker after the futures price rose.

From the perspective of futures:PVC2409 contract night trading price opened slightly volatile, followed by a slight rise in futures prices. After the start of morning trading, futures prices further upward, intraday to maintain a good upward trend, afternoon prices in the day relatively high narrow range finishing. 2409 contracts fluctuated from 5601 to 5710 throughout the day, with a spread of 109. 09 contracts reduced their positions by 63317 lots, with 831093 positions so far, 2501 contracts closing at 5879 and 283309 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

In terms of futures:The operation of the futures price of PVC2409 contract rose slightly from the low point, and the market showed a significant reduction in positions, of which there was a reduction of more than 63000 hands. In terms of transactions, 25.4% of the price is flat compared with 28.6% more flat, and the rebound of the futures price is more inclined to wait and see to reduce the position and leave the market, and even the high price has a certain early multi-stop loss. The technical level shows that the opening of the three tracks of the Bollinger belt (13, 13, 2) is obvious downward, the KD line of the daily line level crosses two lines, and MACD continues to show a dead fork trend, but the distance between the two lines is shortened. from the current price operation, the upside of reducing positions and leaving market can not be judged as the bottoming rebound of the market. The operation of futures prices in the short term observes the pressure performance of the low range of 5700-5750.

Spot aspect:The slight upward rise in futures prices has deepened the emergence of the bottom-reading heart of the industrial chain. first of all, the current low of futures prices has run to 5600, and the previous low has become the lowest point of this year. It is believed that there are certain risks in the two markets that continue to go downward. coupled with the existence of expectations of gold, silver and silver, there is a certain bottom-reading mood. First of all, let's see that the rise in today's two cities is still due to policy stimulus. The Politburo set the tone for the economy in the second half of the year: the ① meeting stressed that we should focus on boosting consumption to expand domestic demand, and that economic policies should focus more on benefiting people's livelihood, promoting consumption, and increasing residents' income through various channels. ② "in the context of the complex and changeable global economic situation, boosting domestic demand, especially consumer demand, has become the key to stabilize economic growth." Overall commodity sentiment has improved, so the rise of the two cities is not determined by fundamentals, the spot market of PVC may be slightly more volatile in the short term, but it is still difficult to get rid of the low level of operation.