Methanol: Futures market is under pressure and the spot market is weak and volatile

On July 30, the methanol market price index was 2198.52, up 9.24 from yesterday and 0.42 per cent higher than yesterday.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on July 29:

China's CFR ranges from US $291 to US $296 per ton, down US $3 per ton.

Us FOB 103-104 cents per gallon, down 3 cents per gallon

Southeast Asia 347-348 US dollars / ton, down 2.50 US dollars / ton

European FOB 320-321 euros / ton, down 4 euros / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2200-2220 (0), North Route: 2120-2140 (10), Lunan: 2370 (0), Henan: 2280-2300 (- 20), Shanxi: 2190-2280 (- 20), Port: 2460-2475 (- 25)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 210-260 (0ax 0), Northern Route-Southern Shandong 270-310 (0max 0), Southern Line-Northern Shandong 220-260 (- 10max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 160-220 (0max 0)

Spot marketToday, the methanol market price continues to be weak, the futures market is wide down, the spot market is weak, and the transaction prices of some bidding enterprises in Shanxi are narrowly lower, and the market volume is limited. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas are adjusted in a narrow range. The quotation on the southern line revolves around 2150 yuan / ton, maintaining yesterday, while that on the northern line revolves around 2120-2140 yuan / ton. At present, the follow-up of downstream market demand is limited, and the enthusiasm of operators to enter the market to replenish goods is general. Affected by the contradiction between supply and demand, the market wait-and-see mood is obvious. The market prices in Shandong, the main consumer area, are arranged in a narrow range, with 2370 yuan / ton in southern Shandong and 2350-2370 yuan / ton in northern Shandong. The volatility of futures is weak, the mood of receiving high-priced goods downstream is cautious, and the market transaction atmosphere is general. The market quotation in North China is adjusted in a narrow range. Hebei quotation is 2310-2340 yuan / ton today. The inventory pressure of manufacturers in the region is not great, but the performance of downstream market demand is poor, and the transaction price of methanol market in some surrounding areas is low today. The enthusiasm of operators to enter the market is not high; Shanxi quotes 2190-2280 yuan / ton today, the futures market is weak and volatile, and the enthusiasm of operators to enter the market is low.

Port marketToday, methanol futures fluctuate at low levels. On-demand procurement within a month, the basis is stable; long-term unilateral low inquiry, receiving goods actively, arbitrage delivery-based, the basis is strong. The replacement train of thought continues, the transaction is active. Taicang main port transaction price: 7 under transaction: 2465-2470, basis 09: 10: 8 transaction: 2480-2490, basis: 09: 25, margin: 28: 8, transaction: 2490, basis: 09: 35; 8: 2495-2500, basis difference: 2505-2540, basis difference 09: 60pm 58.

Future forecast:Recently, the mainland market is still in the supply and demand game stage, with the restart of the early parking device, the local market supply is expected to increase narrowly, but the downstream demand changes little under the influence of the off-season factors, although some olefin manufacturers resume, however, there are stock and other operations in the early stage, so the short-term methanol production is not much, and the overall performance of the demand side is still weak. At present, the contradiction between supply and demand in the mainland market still exists, and it is expected that the methanol market price will continue to be weak in the short term, but in the later stage, we should pay attention to the coal price, the operation of the plant in the field and the follow-up of downstream demand.