Analysis of soda ash market
Today, the market prices of some domestic soda ash have dropped again. As of now, the price of light soda ash in East China is between 1,800 - 2,050 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is between 1,950 - 2,100 yuan/ton; the price of light soda ash in Central China is between 1,700 - 1,850 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is between 1,900 - 2,050 yuan/ton; there has been no equipment maintenance recently, the overall operating load remains high, and the inventory shows a slight upward trend; At the end of the month, some companies offered more discounts on new orders to promote shipments. The high prices of individual light soda in the South China market dropped slightly, but the overall change was not significant; the downstream stock was stocked appropriately, and the main need was for support; the market transaction atmosphere was light, and the soda ash market maintained a weak and stable operation.
Futures dynamics
According to Boduo data, the opening price of SA2409, the main contract for soda ash, on July 29, was 1828 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 1772 yuan/ton, an increase of-5.19% within the day. The intraday high was 1836 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1756 yuan/ton, with a total position of 809283 lots, a month-on-month +1595 lots.
Today, soda ash futures prices continued to be weak and fell sharply. This week, the prices of major manufacturers in the spot market were lowered again, and the futures price was revised downward accordingly. The latest inventory data showed that the accumulation of inventory in the factory expanded this week and the total volume once again reached one million tons. Market sentiment weakened significantly. In the short term, the soda ash market still has not seen an effective improvement driver, and prices may remain weak waiting for new spot quotations. However, after the price fell, there were still some short orders to take profits, and the problem of moving positions in the main contract was subsequently faced. In the future, we can focus on capital behavior.
market outlook
There are still maintenance plans in the future, and there is disturbance in the supply side equipment; at the end of the month, the downstream market is not willing to replenish stocks, and there is obvious mentality of suppressing soda ash prices, which makes it difficult for demand to improve significantly in the short term; the soda ash market continues to be weak, and prices are expected to stabilize and decline.
