Methanol: Futures fluctuated upward and spot prices increased within a narrow range

On July 26, the methanol market price index was 2198.52, up 9.24 from yesterday and 0.42 per cent higher than yesterday.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on July 25:

China CFR 294-299USD / ton, Ping

Us FOB 109-110cents per gallon, flat

Southeast Asia 349-350 US dollars / ton, Ping

European FOB 325-326 euros / ton, up 3.25 euros / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2200-2240 (0), North Line: 2120-2140 (10), Lunan: 2360 (0), Henan: 2310-2320 (0), Shanxi: 2210-2270 (0), Port: 2520-2530 (25)

Freight:

North Line-210-260 (0ax 0), North Line-South Shandong 270-320 (0ax 0), South Line-North Shandong 230-260 (0ax 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 160-220 (0max 0)

Spot marketToday, methanol market prices have been raised by a narrow range, and the futures market has fluctuated upwards. there is some support for market operators, and quotations in some regional markets have been raised, and downstream operators are still enthusiastic about restocking in the market. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas are adjusted in a narrow range, and the quotation on the southern line revolves around 2150 yuan / ton, maintaining that yesterday, the quotation on the northern line revolves around 2120-2140 yuan / ton, with a low-end increase of 10 yuan / ton, and some manufacturers in the region ship goods smoothly, and the pressure on enterprise inventory is not great. There is some support for the mentality of the industry. The market prices in Shandong, the main consumer area, are arranged in a narrow range, with 2360 yuan / ton in southern Shandong and 2360-2380 yuan / ton in northern Shandong. The market quotation in North China is adjusted in a narrow range. Hebei quotation is 2310-2340 yuan / ton today. The inventory pressure of manufacturers in the region is not great, the attitude of operators is strong, and the downstream rigid demand is mainly replenished. Shanxi quotes 2210-2270 yuan / ton today. Downstream market demand continues to be weak, operators enter the market to replenish stock cautiously, and the market inquiry atmosphere is deserted.

Port marketMethanol futures rose slightly today. Spot rigid demand negotiation. In the early months, shipments are active, buyers are cautious to deliver orders; in distant months, unilateral shipments are high, arbitrage buying, and the basis is weaker. There was a slight stalemate in the afternoon. The overall deal is OK. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2525, base difference 09 margin 8 position 7 transaction: 2525-2530, base difference 09: 10, base difference: 2535-2540, base difference 09: 20, margin 25: 8 transaction: 2550-2555, base difference 09: 35, margin 38: 9, basis: 2560-2565, basis: 09: 45.

Future forecast:Recently, the mainland market equipment maintenance restart, Shanxi Huayu, Xiaoyi Pengfei, Mingshui and other devices are planned to restart, local supply or storage is expected to increase, but at the same time, Jiutai (Tuoxian), evergreen, Shenmu and other devices are in a state of parking, and at present, the inventory of most enterprises in the main production areas is low, and the supply end profit still has a certain support to the mentality of the industry. However, the performance of the market demand downstream of the terminal is poor, the Xingxing plant has resumed operation, and the market demand in some areas has improved slightly, but at present, the traditional downstream market is still in the off-season of consumption, and recently affected by high temperature, rainfall and other weather, the market starts to maintain a low level, and the consumption of methanol has decreased. Generally speaking, methanol fundamentals are intertwined with positive and negative factors in the short term, and it is expected that the methanol market price may show a regional trend next week, but in the later stage, we should pay attention to the coal price, the operation of the plant in the field and the follow-up of downstream demand.