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PVC Futures Analysis:July 26th V2409 contract opening price: 5729, highest price: 5768, lowest price: 5727, position: 870293, settlement price: 5745, yesterday settlement: 5729, up 16, daily trading volume: 464246 lots, precipitated capital: 3.496 billion, capital outflow: 102 million.
List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton
PVC spot market:The mainstream transaction prices in the domestic PVC market are mainly adjusted slightly, with prices rising slightly in various regions. Compared with the valuation, it fell by 20 yuan / ton in North China, 30 yuan / ton in East China, 20 yuan / ton in South China, stable in Northeast China, 40-50 yuan / ton in Central China and 30-50 yuan / ton in Southwest China. The factory prices of upstream PVC production enterprises mostly remain stable, and there is no obvious trend of price adjustment, which coincides with the signing of few contracts on Friday. The futures price fluctuates in a narrow range, the quotation of merchants in various regions of the spot market is slightly flexible, the spot price rises slightly, the adjustment of the basis in the spot market is not much, and the spot price and one-mouth price still coexist. Among them, East China basis offer 09 contract-(150-200-250), South China 09 contract-(50-100-150), North 09 contract-(340-460), Southwest 09 contract-(300-400). On the whole, the downstream part of today's spot market is temporarily waiting to see, but the room for negotiation is narrowed, the point price is slightly lower, and the transaction atmosphere is mediocre.
From the perspective of futures:The night price of PVC2409 contract is mainly adjusted in a narrow range, and the low price continues to run in a small range. After the start of morning trading, futures prices rose slightly, but the increase was not enough and then weakened slightly, and the trend of night trading continued to fluctuate in the afternoon. 2409 contracts fluctuated from 5727 to 5768 throughout the day, with a spread of 41 and 09 contracts reducing positions by 27308 positions, with 870293 positions so far, 2501 contracts closing at 5905 and 254104 positions.
PVC Future Forecast:
In terms of futures:The futures price of PVC2409 contract is relatively narrow, fluctuating only 41 points throughout the day, but the market shows an obvious market of reducing positions and leaving the market. In terms of transaction, the short price is 26.9% higher than that of 23.3%, but the corresponding short opening is 22.6% more than 17.6%. The recent operation of the futures price has become a game of short rotation. Technical level shows that the Bolin belt (13, 13, 2) three-track openings continue to all downward, short arrangement is relatively obvious, but the futures price before refreshing yesterday became this year's low, the operation of today's futures lack of direction, and the total turnover can also be seen, the market trend is not active, the short-term period continues to observe the performance of the low period of 5700-5800.
Spot aspect:The spot market coincides with Friday, the downstream product enterprises are not active in taking goods, and some wait and see mainly. Although the recent fluctuation of futures prices is narrow and low, and the point price offer has certain advantages, under the circumstances of less rigid demand replenishment, there has always been no obvious volume in the spot market, and no new trading intention has been seen in maintaining the rhythm of rigid demand replenishment. At present, on the supply side, the start-up load of the PVC plant has dropped significantly in July as a whole, and the start-up so far is even less than 70%. The reduction in supply has also alleviated the pressure of social inventory to a certain extent, but it is difficult to form a better guidance for the price. In the case of the strengthening of the linkage between the two cities, the obvious empty allocation of funds leads to the poor operation of the spot market. And the short-term is difficult to have a better improvement, the overall short-term PVC spot market will continue to be low-level consolidation.
