[Soda ash] Soda ash Weekly Review: Wait-and-see sentiment remains unchanged, prices continue to be weak

1. Analysis of domestic soda ash market

The domestic soda ash spot market stabilized and weakened this week. As of Thursday, the domestic price of light soda ash is between 1,800 - 2,100 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is between 1,900 - 2,200 yuan/ton. Production of early maintenance equipment has been resumed one after another. Although individual equipment still has a reduction in production, the overall market starts and output have increased month-on-month; recent transactions in central and southern China markets have been weak, shipments have slowed down, inventories in some regions have increased significantly, and corporate quotations have loosened significantly, with a drop of 4.35%; Downstream demand is still weak, procurement is mainly low-cost and on-demand, and there is no strong willingness to take goods; the market has a strong wait-and-see attitude, companies have poor receipt of new orders, and the soda ash market is in a weak adjustment state.

In terms of futures, soda ash prices remained mainly within a narrow range during the week following the downward revision of spot prices at the beginning of the week. There is no opportunity for significant improvement in the logic of weak fundamentals, and it is difficult to effectively boost market sentiment. However, there are rumors that upstream deposits will jointly support prices at the end of the month. Some downstream deposits will have a certain demand for replenishment during the month, which may provide certain support for prices in the short term. We can pay attention to whether the subsequent spot market can stop falling and stabilize.

Forecast for next week: Market supply will remain high next week;the endThere may be a downstream need to replenish the warehouse, so stock upintentionIt may recover, but it is difficult to form effective support for the market in the short term. The pressure on the soda ash market to operate well is still high, and prices are expected to be mainly adjusted in a narrow range.

2. Comparison of market prices of soda ash in regions

Unit: yuan/ton

3. Soda ash process profit statement

As of July 25 this week, the profit of the combined alkali method was 518 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan/ton from the previous week; the profit of the ammonia-alkali method was 335 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week.

4. Equipment maintenance of soda ash enterprises

About 88.50% of the soda ash industry started this week, an increase of 2.19% from last week. According to incomplete statistics, the output of soda ash manufacturers this week is about 741,700 tons.

5. Soda ash manufacturer inventory

The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers this week was 985,600 tons, which was around 899,200 tons last week, a month-on-month increase of 86,400 tons, an increase of 8.77%.