Methanol: Futures range fluctuates, spot market regional trend

On July 24, the methanol market price index was 2184.65, down 1.92 from yesterday and 0.09 per cent from the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on July 23:

China CFR 293-295 US dollars / ton, up 3 US dollars / ton

Us FOB 104-105 cents per gallon, flat

Southeast Asia 349-350 US dollars / ton, Ping

European FOB 320.75-321.75 euros / ton, flat.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2200-2240 (0), North Route: 2100-2110 (0), Lunan: 2360 (0), Henan: 2310-2320 (10), Shanxi: 2210-2270 (0), Port: 2500-2520 (5)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 200-270 (0ax 0), Northern Route-Southern Shandong 270-320 (- 30 Uniqure 10), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 230-260 (0max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 160-220 (10max 0)

Spot marketToday, methanol market prices are adjusted in a narrow range, the futures market maintains a volatile trend, downstream operators are more cautious in entering the market to replenish stocks, and local enterprises can ship goods after a narrow reduction in new prices. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas are adjusted in a narrow range. The quotation on the southern route revolves around 2150 yuan / ton, which is 20 yuan / ton higher than that of yesterday, and the quotation on the northern line revolves around 2100-2130 yuan / ton. Some manufacturers in the region ship goods smoothly, and there is little pressure on enterprise inventory. There is some support for the mentality of the industry. The market prices in Shandong, the main consumer area, are arranged in a narrow range, with 2360 yuan / ton in southern Shandong and 2360-2380 yuan / ton in northern Shandong. The market quotation in North China is adjusted in a narrow range. Hebei quotation is 2320-2340 yuan / ton today. The inventory pressure of manufacturers in the region is not great, and the mentality of operators is strong, but the demand for methanol in the market is sluggish, and the price of methanol is limited. Shanxi quotes 2210-2270 yuan / ton today, the demand side of the downstream market continues to be weak, operators enter the market cautiously, and the market inquiry atmosphere is cold.

Port marketToday, methanol futures are slightly stronger. Spot trading is light, arbitrage offer; paper goods exchange ideas continue, some unilateral delivery, the basis is strong, the price difference between far and near months widens. The overall deal was average. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2495-2500, base difference 09: 5: 7 transaction: 2500-2525, basis: 09: 23: 8: 2510-2535, basis: 09: 23: 8: 2525-2545, basis difference 09: 359: 2535, basis difference 09: 45.

Future forecast:From the perspective of the mainland market, as the long contract settlement day approaches this week, the inventory of most manufacturers in the main production areas has fallen to a relatively low level, supporting the firm operation of manufacturers' quotations to a certain extent, but considering that the follow-up of the downstream market demand is limited, the game between market supply and demand still exists, and some operators in the market still have a wait-and-see mood for the future. From the point of view of the port market, with the arrival of imported cargo and the weakening of downstream demand support, the inventory of methanol port market continues to accumulate, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the region is difficult to reverse, and the arrival of imported cargo is still expected to increase in the later stage. Overall, it is expected that the short-term methanol market price will continue the regional trend, but in the later stage, we should pay attention to the coal price, the operation of the plant in the field and the operation of the olefin unit.