Methanol: Futures returns to the 2500 mark and the spot market is running in a weak position

On July 23, the methanol market price index was 2186.58, down 0.56 from yesterday and 0.03 per cent lower than the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on July 22:

China CFR 290-295 US dollars / ton, down 1 US dollars / ton

Us FOB 104-105 cents per gallon, flat

Southeast Asia 349-350 US dollars / ton, Ping

European FOB 320.75-321.75 euros / ton, down 1 euro / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2200-2240 (- 0), North Route: 2100-2110 (0), Lunan: 2360 (20), Henan: 2300-2325 (- 10), Shanxi: 2210-2270 (- 20), Port: 2495-2500 (0)

Freight:

Northern route-200-270 (- 10amp 0), northern route-southern Shandong 300-330 (0max 0), southern route-northern Shandong 230-260 (- 10max 0), Guanzhong-southwest Shandong 150-220 (0gammer 10)

Spot marketToday, the price trend of the methanol market is divided, the price in the mainland market is weak, and the futures market is strong and volatile, which boosts the market atmosphere to a certain extent, the enthusiasm of downstream and traders to receive goods is slightly improved, and some bidding enterprises in the main producing areas are sold at a premium. there is a certain support for the mentality of the operators, but the market prices have fallen in order to ensure shipments in some areas. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas are adjusted in a narrow range, with the quotation on the southern line around 2130 yuan / ton and the quotation on the northern line on 2100-2110, which gives some support to the mentality of the industry. Market prices in Shandong, the main consumer area, rose narrowly, with 2360 yuan / ton in southern Shandong and 2360-2380 yuan / ton in northern Shandong, with a low-end increase of 20 yuan / ton, and peripheral auction prices rose slightly, but downstream rigid demand for replenishment was mainly low, and the market atmosphere was cautious. The market quotation in North China is adjusted in a narrow range. Hebei quotation is 2320-2340 yuan / ton today. The downstream market demand performance is poor, and the enthusiasm of operators to enter the market to replenish stock is limited. Shanxi quotes 2210-2270 yuan / ton today, and the market transaction atmosphere is not good. Although there are devices for parking in the area, the supply is still not reduced.

Port marketToday, methanol futures are slightly stronger. Few spot negotiations, arbitrage offer; paper goods exchange ideas continue, far and near monthly price difference remains stable, unilateral low inquiry, general transaction. Taicang main port transaction price: 7 under deal: 2510, base difference 09 / 11 / 10 / 13 / 8 transaction: 2520-2530, basis / 09 / 22 / 8 / transaction: 2530 / 2540, basis / 09 / 32 / 9 / transaction: 2535, basis / 09 / 40 / 40 / 42.

Future forecast:Today, the main contract price of methanol has gone up instead of falling, which has improved the mentality of the operators to a certain extent, and the market turnover in some areas has improved slightly, but considering that the inventory in the port market is still in a state of accumulation and some parking devices have been restarted one after another, the market supply side is expected to increase to a certain extent, although Xingxing plant returns to normal operation, there is no obvious increase in methanol demand. And the traditional downstream market is still in the off-season of consumption, and the terminal demand continues to be weak, which is difficult to boost the methanol market. Generally speaking, the short-term methanol market price is expected to be weak and volatile, but in the later stage, we should pay attention to the coal price, the operation of the plant and the operation of the olefin plant.