Analysis of soda ash market
Prices in some regions of the country have adjusted slightly today. As of now, the price of light soda ash in South China is between 2,050 - 2,100 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is between 2,150 - 2,250 yuan/ton; the price of light soda ash in Central China is between 1,750 - 1,900 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is between 2,000 - 2,100 yuan/ton; the start-up of enterprises continues to maintain a high level, and the number of equipment in individual enterprises has been reduced; At present, the focus of transactions in the East China market has shifted downward, and prices have continued to fall; manufacturers in the South China market have high inventories and prices have been loosened; downstream demand is cold, and it is still dominated by demand, tending to purchase at low prices and resisting high prices. The soda ash market is weak.
Futures dynamics
According to Boduo data, the opening price of SA2409, the main contract for soda ash, on July 22, was 1930 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 1894 yuan/ton, an increase of-2.72% within the day. The intraday high was 1952 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1891 yuan/ton, with a total position of 823947 lots, a month-on-month +43322 lots.
Today, the soda ash futures market fluctuated mainly downward, falling below the 1900 yuan mark several times. On the one hand, the commodity market, especially those with weak fundamentals, has certain emotional compensation that is beneficial to the implementation during the policy maintenance period. On the other hand, this week, the quotations of soda ash manufacturers began to be lowered again. The support for stabilizing prices in the early period collapsed, and the futures price was revised downward accordingly. In the follow-up, the profitability of downstream industries was poor, and soda plants were hesitant to maintain their own profits and maintain the sustainability of demand. It is difficult for the market to give absolute certainty for the time being, but at present, before there are no large-scale disturbances on the supply side and signs of recovery in downstream profitability, soda ash lacks actual upward drive or remains weak.
market outlook
The summer maintenance plan is maintained, and the supply side is hovering at a high level; while the profits of major downstream products are still under pressure, and the willingness to purchase soda ash is weak. However, it is necessary to pay attention to the replenishment situation in the middle and lower reaches of the month. It is expected that the domestic soda ash market price may adjust within a narrow range in the short term.
