Caustic soda: Spot prices partially fell, futures prices gapped lower and opened lower to break previous lows, and bears entered the market significantly

Analysis of caustic soda futures:SH2405 contract opening price: 2500, highest price: 2505, lowest price: 2413, position: 69328, settlement price: 2446, yesterday settlement: 2547, down: 101, closing price: 2421, daily trading volume: 157479 lots, precipitated capital: 806 million, capital inflow: 95.41 million.

Market price of caustic soda:

Spot analysis of caustic soda:Today, the trend of the domestic caustic soda market is differentiated, the price range in some areas is arranged and operated, and the up and down adjustment is concentrated in the range of 10-50 yuan / ton. At the beginning of the week, the mentality of price adjustment in different regions was different, the performance of market transactions was general, the situation of supply and demand in some areas changed slightly, and most areas maintained the early stage. Today, the prices in the liquid alkali market are mixed, and the trading situation in various regions is general. From the point of view of the price adjustment in each region, 32% of the ionic membrane alkali has partially dropped by 20-30 yuan / ton, 50% of the ion-exchange membrane alkali has been reduced by 10-20 yuan / ton, and some have risen by 50 yuan / ton. the prices of other concentrations of alkali have almost remained stable, and the price range has not been significantly adjusted. First of all, the price decline in some areas, on the one hand, is mainly affected by the poor shipping situation of enterprises, coupled with the price decline in the surrounding areas, on the other hand, the price decline in Shandong, the main producing area, is mainly due to the restoration of pre-maintenance equipment, and the supply on the market has increased. The price increase in individual areas is still supported by the parking of individual devices in the previous period. The market operation in other regions is relatively stable, the price center of gravity in each region has not changed significantly, the downstream demand in most areas is flat, the shipping situation of liquid alkali enterprises is general, and most of the transactions maintain the previous level. Most of the upstream manufacturers wait and see to stabilize the price, and the mentality of price adjustment is more cautious. Today, the trend of the tablet alkali market is stable, the situation of enterprise shipments is lukewarm, the downstream demand changes little, and there is no obvious change in the transaction price range of each regional market. At the end of the maintenance of some devices, they are restored one after another. At the beginning of the week, most manufacturers and traders wait and see the market at a stable price, showing a cautious attitude.

Caustic soda futures analysis:Caustic soda SH2409 contract jump low opening showed a downward trend, and then hit a low after a small rebound. As of today's close, SH2409 contracts fluctuated in the range of 2413-2505 throughout the day, with a price difference of 92 minus 09 contracts with an increase of 10936 positions and 69328 positions so far.

Caustic soda index analysis:According to Tuduoduo data, the domestic caustic soda index was 2793.73, down 13.51, or 0.481%, on July 22, and the domestic caustic soda index fell.

Future forecast of caustic soda:

Spot aspect:In the liquid alkali market, from the supply side, it is expected that some of the pre-maintenance equipment will be restored one after another, but this week there are still planned maintenance devices, which are mainly started or slightly adjusted under comprehensive hedging; in addition, the shipping situation of enterprises is not good, and the liquid alkali inventory of some enterprises has increased, and on the whole, the supply side has gradually consumed the favorable support of the market. The overall downstream demand does not change much, and it is difficult to have a significant increase in demand in the off-season. It is expected that the short-term liquid alkali market or weak finishing operation. In the tablet alkali market, most of the tablet alkali prices still maintain a stable trend, the market trading atmosphere is general, and the overall market sentiment is not high. At present, the previous maintenance equipment is partially restored, a few devices are at the end of maintenance, and the supply of flake alkali is expected to increase. It is expected that the wait-and-see mood in the short-term tablet alkali market is still strong, the new price of tablet alkali this week may maintain last week's level, we need to pay attention to the specific market conditions.

In terms of futures:Caustic soda SH2409 contract week early price fell below the 2500 mark to a new low of 2413, futures prices significantly increased positions down, short entry is more obvious, disk turnover: 17.5% more than short opening 23.7%, short 17.7% vs. 17.1%. The technical level shows that the opening of the third rail of the Bollinger belt (13,13,2) has a divergent trend, the upper rail shows an upward turning trend, the middle and lower rail openings are still downward, the daily level of the MA line and MACD line show a dead fork trend, the MACD line dead fork trend is significantly expanded, today's futures price fell through the lower track to set a new low, the futures price is completely below the MACD combination line. In the short term, we should pay attention to the support level of the lower track and whether the futures price will continue to fall below the 2400 mark.

Caustic soda holds the list: