Methanol: Futures fell below the 2500 mark and spot prices were weak

On July 19th, the methanol market price index was 2188.47, down 2.61% from yesterday, down 0.12% from the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on July 18:

China CFR 292-295 US dollars / ton, down 4 US dollars / ton

Us FOB 104-105 cents per gallon, down 1 cent per gallon

Us $350 to US $351 per ton in Southeast Asia, down US $2 per ton

European FOB 322.75-323.75 euros / ton, up 1 euro / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2260-2290 (0), North Route: 2100-2120 (0), Lunan: 2360-2370 (0), Henan: 2300-2330 (0), Shanxi: 2230-2300 (0), Port: 25002510 (- 35)

Freight:

North Route-North Shandong 210-270 (0ax 0), North Line-South Shandong 300-330 (0ax 0), South Line-Northern Shandong 230-250 (0ax 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 150-230 (0max 0)

Spot marketToday, methanol market prices continue to operate weakly, futures market volatility drops, the lowest price falls to 2491, the mindset of market operators is poor, spot market prices are adjusted within a narrow range, downstream rigid demand is dominated by replenishment, and the market transaction atmosphere is limited. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas are adjusted in a narrow range, with the quotation on the southern line around 2130-2160 yuan / ton and the northern line around 2100-2120 yuan / ton, maintaining yesterday. Although methanol maintenance equipment has been added in Shaanxi, there is still a demand for storage and delivery in some factories, and some manufacturers have taken the initiative to reduce prices for shipment, but the transaction volume has not increased significantly. Market prices in Shandong, the main consumer area, fell in a narrow range, with 2360-2370 yuan / ton in southern Shandong and 2350-2380 yuan / ton in northern Shandong. Methanol futures fluctuated downward, and the industry had a strong wait-and-see mood. The market quotation in North China is adjusted in a narrow range. Hebei quotation is 2330-2350 yuan / ton today, the low end is stable, the downstream demand is limited, and the low price is mainly low and a small amount of inquiry is given priority to. Shanxi quotes 2230-2330 yuan / ton today, and downstream operators continue to have rigid demand to pick up goods. Most methanol enterprises have no inventory pressure for the time being.

Port marketToday, methanol futures are down. Arbitrage within the month to sell, unilateral bargain to receive goods. Long-term exchange of goods to buy transactions, the basis stabilized slightly stronger. The replacement of goods has continued in recent months. The overall deal is OK. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2500-2510, base difference 09-5 Meltel 3 position 7 transaction: 2500-2525, basis difference 09-15 position 8 transaction: 2520-2525, base difference 09-15 transaction 8 transaction: 2515-2520, base difference 09-20 transaction 8 transaction: 2520-2540, basis difference 09-2510 transaction: 2540, basis difference 09-038.

Future forecast:Recently, the start-up of the mainland market has declined, and the 400000-ton project of Shenmu Chemical Phase II has entered a state of maintenance, with an initial estimate of more than 20 days; the first phase of 200000-ton / year project is under rush repair, and the short-term supply side favorable support still exists. However, at present, the traditional downstream market is still in the off-season of consumption, market start-up remains at a low level, methanol consumption has been reduced, the main downstream olefin industry has not changed significantly at present, and market start-up is still in a low position. In the short term, the main downstream is difficult to form a strong support to the methanol market. Generally speaking, the fundamentals of short-term methanol are still in the state of supply and demand game, and the weakness of demand is still the main factor dragging down the market price. It is expected that the short-term methanol market price is weak and volatile, but in the later stage, we should pay attention to the coal price, the operation of the plant in the field and the follow-up of downstream demand.