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PVC Futures Analysis:July 19th V2409 contract opening price: 5858, highest price: 5870, lowest price: 5828, position: 916293, settlement price: 5847, yesterday settlement: 5857, down 10, daily trading volume: 511326 lots, precipitated capital: 3.743 billion, capital outflow: 3.44 million.
List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton
PVC spot market:The mainstream transaction prices in the domestic PVC market are basically maintained in the early stage, and merchants in various regions are mainly shipping. The comparison of valuation shows that North China is stable, East China is stable, South China is stable, Northeast China is stable, Central China is stable, and Southwest China is stable. The ex-factory price of upstream PVC production enterprises basically remained stable, and there was no obvious adjustment trend, which coincided with Friday when upstream enterprises actively digested inventory. The fluctuation of the narrow range of futures price is slightly weak, the spot market price and one-bite price coexist, the turnover in the spot market is relatively light today, and the basis adjustment is not much, including 09 contracts in East China (200-250-300), 09 contracts in South China-(100-150), 09 contracts in North China-(380-450), 09 contracts in Southwest China-(400-450). On the whole, the price offered by traders has not changed much from that of yesterday, and it is difficult to close the transaction at a high price, and some of the point-price sources have a price advantage in the morning and afternoon. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm is general, part of temporary wait-and-see.
From the perspective of futures:The night price of PVC2409 contract opened slightly volatile, followed by a weak decline in late trading. After the start of morning trading, the futures price rose slightly after finishing the low level, but the afternoon price returned to the low range again and closed lower in late trading. 2409 contracts fluctuated from 5828 to 5870 throughout the day, with a spread of 42 and 09 contracts reducing their positions by 4472 positions, with 916293 positions so far, 2501 contracts closing at 6029 and 198834 positions.
PVC Future Forecast:
In terms of futures:The operation of the futures price of the PVC2409 contract is extremely narrow and only 42 points. Although the market trend also shows some ups and downs throughout the day, it is difficult to see the direction of the rise and fall in the corresponding fluctuation range, and the market trend is tangled. Although there is a small increase in positions, in terms of transactions, the opening is 24.5% higher than that of 21.1%, but the corresponding level is also increased, with 23.6% compared to 21.6%. A game in which short sellers rotate back and forth during the operation of a short character. The technical level shows that the opening of the three tracks of the Bolin belt (13, 13, 2) is narrowed, the KD line at the daily level shows a golden fork, and the MACD line continues to show a dead fork trend. The trend is slightly divergent, and the operation of futures prices in the short term continues to observe the performance of the low range of 5800-5950.
Spot aspect:It coincides with the relatively weak performance of the two cities on Friday. First of all, the fluctuation of the futures price is relatively narrow. Secondly, the spot market is also insufficient in terms of trading and price adjustment today. Businesses in various regions mostly adjust according to their own conditions. Some have heard that they can make a small profit of 10-20 yuan per ton. Up to now, mainly, we still think that the narrowing of the basis can also see that there is nothing to fall in spot prices, but the price increases in the two cities also lack sufficient positive factors. In the afternoon, the deputy director of the Central Finance Office in charge of daily work and director of the Central Agricultural Office said at a news conference on Friday that the "decision of the CPC Central Committee on further comprehensively deepening Reform and promoting Chinese-style Modernization" (hereinafter referred to as the "decision"), examined and adopted at the third Plenary session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, made comprehensive arrangements for reform in the areas of economy and people's livelihood, mainly involving seven aspects. However, the impact on the current commodities is not known, the overall short-term PVC spot market continues to narrow adjustment model.
