[Soda ash]7.16 Soda ash Daily Review: Soda ash market prices are weak and stable

Analysis of soda ash market

Today, the domestic soda ash market price has temporarily stabilized. As of now, the price of light soda ash in South China is 2,100 - 2,150 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 2,250 - 2,350 yuan/ton; the price of light soda ash in Southwest China is 2,000 - 2,100 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 2,150 - 2,250 yuan/ton; recently, the start of soda ash enterprises is still at a high level, the market supply is sufficient, but production will decrease in the short term due to maintenance; Procurement demand in the downstream market is limited, and it is still resistant to high prices, and most of them are mainly replenished at low prices; the market transaction atmosphere is light, and the soda ash market maintains a weak adjustment.

Futures dynamics

According to Boduo data, the opening price of SA2409, the main contract for soda ash, on July 16, was 1950 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 1941 yuan/ton, an increase of-1.17% within the day. The intraday high was 1957 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1922 yuan/ton, with a total position of 814328 lots, a month-on-month +12850 lots.

Today, soda ash futures prices remain mainly volatile in a narrow range, and they temporarily lack a strong driving force. The main logic of weak fundamentals may continue to intensify over time. However, the market still has certain expectations of supply disturbances and repeated macro sentiments. The market is still worried about periodic supply and demand mismatches and policy guidance that exceeds expectations. Before this, there may still be some support for soda ash prices, but whether the game space can be opened still needs to be seen whether there are opportunities for improvement in the actual supply and demand situation, otherwise the soda ash market may continue to weaken.

market outlook

There are still maintenance plans in the future, and the overall start-up will show a slight decline; downstream demand is basically stable and needs to be replenished; it is expected that in the short term, the domestic soda ash market will have no positive factors to boost prices or will operate weakly and stably.