Methanol: The mainland market is still in the stage of supply-demand game, spot prices have been adjusted within a narrow range

On July 15, the market price index of methanol was 2213.16, which was 3.09 lower than that of the previous working day and 0.14% lower than the previous working day.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on July 12:

China CFR 295-298 US dollars / ton, down 4 US dollars / ton

Us FOB 106107cents / gallon, flat

Southeast Asia 352-353 US dollars / ton, down 3 US dollars / ton

European FOB 325.75-326.75 euros / ton, up 6 euros / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2260-2290 (20), North Route: 2125-2160 (- 5), Lunan: 2410-2420 (- 25), Henan: 2355-2370 (- 5), Shanxi: 2215-2320 (0), Port: 25552570 (5)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 210-270 (- 30 Uniqure 20), Northern Route-Southern Shandong 300-330 (0amp 0), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 220-260 (- 20 Maple 10), Guanzhong-Southwestern Shandong 150-200 (10max 20)

Spot marketToday, the price of methanol in the market is adjusted in a narrow range, some devices in the mainland market are stopped for maintenance, and the supply in the region has been reduced. In addition, in the early stage, with the smooth shipment of manufacturers and the support of low supply pressure, manufacturers' quotations remain high. However, the performance of the downstream market is still weak, and the consumption of methanol on the demand side is relatively limited. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas are adjusted in a narrow range, with the quotation on the southern route around 2150 yuan / ton, the low end stable, and the quotation on the northern line around 2125-2160 yuan / ton. The long part of the market and the auction price fell in a narrow range, but the overall transaction was OK, and the premium deal was completed, which slightly boosted the market atmosphere. Market prices in Shandong, the main consumer area, fell in a narrow range, with 2410-2420 yuan / ton in southern Shandong, 25 yuan / ton in the low end and 2390-2410 yuan / ton in northern Shandong. Most of the downstream raw material inventory is high and the purchasing enthusiasm is not high. North China market quotation narrow adjustment, Hebei quotation today 2330-2360 yuan / ton, low-end stability, methanol market fundamentals in the region lack of good news boost, market turnover is limited; Shanxi quotation today 2215-2320 yuan / ton, stable, downstream demand is flat, manufacturers mostly maintain rigid demand procurement, the current regional enterprise inventory to maintain a low and medium level, operators more maintain a price mentality.

Port marketToday, methanol futures range fluctuates. There are few offers in stock. Paper part of the high, arbitrage and exchange order-based, active follow-up within the month, the long-term slightly stronger, the monthly difference of exchange narrowed. The overall deal is OK. Taicang main port transaction price: 7, transaction price: 2555-2570, basis 09-10, basis 09-10, market price: 2560-2580, basis difference 09pm, market price: 2580-2600, basis difference: 09cm, 15pm, 20th, transaction: 2605-2615, basis difference 0938.

Future forecast:At present, the mainland market is still in the supply and demand game stage, some units in the main production areas are stopped as scheduled, and the 2 million-ton methanol plant in Jiutai (Tuoxian) is scheduled to be stopped and overhauled on the evening of July 15. Boyuan 150000 tons / year natural gas methanol plant was overhauled on July 15. Changqing 600000-ton plant was stopped and overhauled in the afternoon of July 14, and the supply in the region continued to decrease, and the overall inventory pressure of manufacturers was not great at present, which to some extent supported the firm quotation of manufacturers, but considering that there was no obvious improvement in downstream market demand and rigid demand, the short-term spot market price of methanol was insufficient, and the short-term price adjustment in the mainland market was expected to be narrow, but coal prices should be paid attention to in the later stage. Follow up the operation of the plant in the field and the downstream demand.