Analysis of soda ash market
Today, the price of soda ash in East China and Southwest China has been slightly lowered. As of now, the price of light soda ash in East China is between 1,900 - 2,150 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is between 2,050 - 2,200 yuan/ton; the price of light soda ash in Southwest China is between 2,000 - 2,100 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is between 2,150 - 2,250 yuan/ton; There has been a slight decline in the overall market start-up for equipment maintenance by individual soda makers. At present, companies mainly focus on delivering existing orders; downstream demand is weak and there is a strong resistance to high-priced soda ash. Most of them mainly wait and see for low-priced transactions, and are motivated to get goods. Not high, the soda ash market is mainly adjusted for weakness.
Futures dynamics
According to Boduo data, the opening price of SA2409, the main contract for soda ash, on July 15, was 1966 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 1962 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.15% within the day. The intraday high was 2002 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1916 yuan/ton, with a total position of 801477 lots, a month-on-month +2414 lots.
Today, soda ash futures prices fluctuate widely due to the market environment and capital behavior. On the one hand, monetary policy news out of Friday night trading and the month-on-month stabilization of some domestic real estate data released today have provided certain support for prices. On the other hand, this week, the supply of soda ash once again increased maintenance plans, and the quotations of major factories also stopped falling and stabilized. After the supply disturbance problem emerged, the market gradually began to speculate whether there was a bottom-hunting phenomenon in the middle and lower reaches of the market. However, the short-term macro policy has not yet given content that actually exceeds expectations, and it is difficult to form a strong driving force on the reality side in the short term. As the main contract gradually approaches the delivery date, the realistic logic will gradually be higher than the expected logic. In the short term, we can focus on whether policies exceeding expectations can be given during the macro meeting, and whether a mismatch between supply and demand can once again form in the real world. If the above conditions are not formed, soda ash prices will still be difficult to open up upward space for the time being.
market outlook
There are still maintenance plans in the future, and supply will fluctuate within a narrow range; transactions in the downstream float glass market are sluggish, the industry is facing losses, and there is obvious intention to lower the price of soda ash; production and sales in the soda ash market are basically balanced, and there are no positive factors to support the price upward. It is expected that in the short term, domestic soda ash market prices will be adjusted within a narrow range.
