PVC: The futures price fell below the track in the afternoon, and the position increased significantly, and the spot market weakened.

PVC Futures Analysis:July 15 V2409 contract opening price: 5922, highest price: 5931, lowest price: 5808, position: 980729, settlement price: 5874, yesterday settlement: 5923, down 49, daily trading volume: 981660 lots, precipitated capital: 3.996 billion, capital inflow: 165 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

PVC spot market:Domestic PVC market mainstream transaction prices showed further downward, the atmosphere at the beginning of the week is not good. Compared with the valuation, it fell by 30 yuan / ton in North China, 30 yuan / ton in East China, 30 yuan / ton in South China, 50 yuan / ton in Northeast China, 20 yuan / ton in Central China and 20 yuan / ton in Southwest China. The ex-factory price of upstream PVC production enterprises is basically stable, because the feedback from the two cities in the morning period is dull, so the bids of production enterprises in the morning period are mostly maintained in the early stage. Afternoon opening prices fell significantly, the spot market trend differentiation, stable prices wait and see in the morning, a price comparison adjustment is not much, but in the afternoon with the price down, and the basis narrowed, but the price after the base advantage is obvious. Among them, 09 contracts in East China-(200-250-300), 09 in South China-(150-200), 09 in North China-(430-470), 09 in Southwest China-(400-450-500). After the futures price went down, the transaction of some prices improved in the afternoon, which led to the enthusiasm of inquiry, but the single point was on the low side.

From the perspective of futures:The night market price of the PVC2409 contract is mainly arranged slightly, and the direction of the night market is not obvious. There was nothing new in the price volatility after the start of early trading on Monday, continuing the narrow-band consolidation model, with prices falling sharply in the afternoon and closing at a low in late trading. 2409 contracts fluctuated in the range of 5808-5931 throughout the day, with a spread of 123 .09 contracts with an increase of 56343 positions, with 980729 positions so far, 2501 contracts closing at 6005 and 155208 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

In terms of futures:The futures price of PVC2409 contract shows a deep downward trend, especially in the afternoon. There is no doubt about the role of empty distribution in the overall plasticized 3P plate. Polyolefin products PP and PE are significantly lower, so the 3P price spread is further expanded. The low point of the futures price broke through the kneeling support level and went down in depth, and the decline in the whole day was larger, and there was more short opening. In terms of transaction, the short opening was 27.2% compared with 25.1% more. The low point of the futures price returned to the low position of the former main contract. The technical level shows that the opening of the three tracks of the Bollinger belt (13, 13, 2) is expanded, and the short-term price may continue to be low in the short term. Observe the performance of the lower rail position in the range of 5750-5870.

Spot aspect:The futures market was caught off guard by the deep fall in the futures market. Under the circumstances that the overall plasticizing plate was obviously weak and the positions increased and fell short, the spot market prices began to return to the low range. Looking at the overall market changes, the performance of the two domestic PVC markets is really indescribable. On the one hand, the futures price fell 856 points from the high point of 6664 to the lowest point of 5808 points, less than 2 months. The stimulus from the policy port has always been unable to form a sustained driving force, but after returning to the fundamentals, the two cities have been beaten back to their original shape and returned to the low-level range. In the outer disk, international oil prices closed slightly lower as investors weighed weaker US consumer confidence against heightened hopes of a Fed rate cut in September and fell for the first time in five weeks. On the whole, it is difficult to change the low-level operation of PVC in the short term.