Daily review of urea: Demand follows up. Quotes from a small number of limited companies are stable and loose.(July 15)

Domestic urea price index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on July 15 was 2,332.86, a decrease of 2.27 from last Friday, a month-on-month decrease of 0.10% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.49%.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of urea UR409 contract is 2065, the highest price is 2094, the lowest price is 2042, the settlement price is 2067, and the closing price is 2049. The closing price is 14 lower than the settlement price of the previous trading day, down 0.68% month-on-month. The fluctuation range of the whole day is 2042-2094; the basis of the 09 contract in Shandong is 241; the 09 contract has increased its position by 1277 lots today, and so far, it has held 179326 lots.

Today, urea futures prices surged high and fell back mainly. Affected by monetary policy news coming out of Friday night trading, the commodity market rose sharply late in the night trading, driving the urea market to open higher on Monday and surge higher in the short term with market sentiment. However, its own fundamentals do not yet support price increases. After the sentiment subsides, the trading logic returns to its own weak expectations. In the short term, urea's own driving force is still insufficient, or it remains mainly wide-ranging fluctuations with the market environment.

Spot market analysis:

Today, the domestic urea mainstream regional market prices showed signs of loosening and downward adjustment. The current market demand is difficult to continue to follow up, companies have insufficient follow-up on new orders, and quotations have all shown varying degrees of decline.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China have stabilized at 2,350 - 2,400 yuan/ton. Prices in East China fell to 2,250 - 2,320 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China has stabilized at 2,240 - 2,450 yuan/ton, while the price of large particles has dropped to 2,250 - 2,280 yuan/ton. Prices in North China fell to 2,130 - 2,420 yuan/ton. Prices in South China fell to 2,320 - 2,420 yuan/ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 2,380 - 2,400 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,220 - 2,550 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of factories, manufacturers have successively shipped pending orders, and offers have been stable and moving slightly. The pressure on individual factories has gradually increased, and quotations have been flexibly loosened and lowered. In terms of the market, traders have increased their willingness to ship, and their quotations have gradually shown signs of loosening and downward adjustment. The market has increased in low-priced goods, and the market has loosened slightly. Currently, there is still a certain demand in the market. Transactions of low-end goods have increased, supporting the market for temporary stability. The lack of positive factors in the overall market continues to boost, and the market operation is deadlocked. On the supply side, equipment maintenance has resumed alternately, Nissan fluctuates generally, supply continues to be high, pressure is prominent, and negative impact on the market. On the demand side, downstream willingness to receive goods is not good, and the demand side is weak. At present, there is still a demand for topdressing for farmers, but follow-up efforts are limited, the overall support capacity is weak, and continuous follow-up is difficult, so people hold a wait-and-see attitude; the autumn fertilizer production time of downstream compound fertilizer factories is approaching, and the raw materials are stocked in small quantities. Currently, we are cautiously following up and replenishing mainly, and there has been no centralized collection of goods.

On the whole, the current mood for agricultural topdressing in the urea market is relatively scattered, and the market lacks sustained motivation to support prices. It is expected that the urea market will be deadlocked and loosened in a short period of time, and the price will be mainly lowered within a narrow range.