Methanol: The current range of methanol period fluctuates and the market transaction atmosphere is general

On July 12, the market price index of methanol was 2216.26, down 0.03 from yesterday.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on July 11:

China CFR 298-305 US dollars / ton, up 8 US dollars / ton

Us FOB 106107cents / gallon, flat

Southeast Asia 355-356 US dollars / ton, up 2 US dollars / ton

European FOB 319.75-320.75 euros / ton, down 3 euros / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2240-2300 (0), North Route: 2130-2150 (0), Lunan: 2435-2400 (0), Henan: 2360-2370 (5), Shanxi: 2215-2320 (0), Port: 25502565 (0)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 240-290 (0ram 0), Northern Route-Southern Shandong 300-330 (0max 0), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 240-270 (- 15gamma Mueller 10), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 140-180 (0max 0)

Spot marketToday, the price of methanol market is adjusted in a narrow range, and most mainland enterprises are running firmly under the support of little inventory pressure, and the downstream operators are still enthusiastic about restocking in the market. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas are adjusted in a narrow range, with the quotation on the southern route around 2150 yuan / ton, the low end stable, and the quotation on the northern line around 2130-2150 yuan / ton. The inventory pressure of manufacturers in the region is not great, and the market price remains high. The market price in Shandong, the main consumption area, is stable temporarily, with 2435-2440 yuan / ton in southern Shandong and 2410-2430 yuan / ton in northern Shandong. Most of the downstream raw material inventory is high and the purchasing enthusiasm is not good. The market quotation in North China is adjusted in a narrow range. Hebei quotation is 2330-2360 yuan / ton today, the low end is stable, the downstream replenishment enthusiasm is OK, and the market transaction atmosphere is general; Shanxi quotation today is 2215-2320 yuan / ton, maintaining yesterday, the overall supply pressure in the region is not great, the market atmosphere is boosted, and the quotation of manufacturers is raised narrowly.

Port marketToday, methanol futures fluctuate in a narrow range. Purchase on demand within a month. Long-term arbitrage trading is dominated, the current basis is stable, and buying is better at the end of the day. The monthly price difference narrowed, and the overall turnover throughout the day was light. Taicang main port transaction price: 7 middle deal: 2550, basis difference 09-20 position 7 transaction: 2565, basis difference 09-8 position 8 transaction price: 2585-2590, basis difference 09: 15.

Future forecast:The recent start-up in the mainland is lower than that in the previous period, and at present, the overall shipment of methanol enterprises is smooth, the factory inventory is mostly low, and the supporting price mentality of manufacturers with low shipping pressure is more obvious. and in the later stage, Changqing, Xiaoyi Pengfei, Huayu and other devices all have maintenance plans, and the supply side is favorable and the support is obvious, but considering the general performance of the terminal downstream market demand at present, affected by seasonal factors, the terminal downstream industry is difficult to see obvious improvement. And at present, the start-up of the olefin industry remains relatively low, and the short-term demand side is difficult to improve significantly. At present, there is still some positive support on the short-term supply side, but the weakness of terminal demand is still the main factor to restrain the rise of methanol price. under the game of supply and demand, it is expected that the short-term methanol market price will continue to fluctuate within the range, but in the later stage, we should pay attention to the coal price, the operation of the plant in the field and the follow-up of downstream demand.