PVC: Futures and current trends are separated, the spot market has increased and low prices have decreased, but futures participation has declined

PVC Futures Analysis:July 12 V2409 contract opening price: 5925, highest price: 5943, lowest price: 5905, position: 924386, settlement price: 5923, yesterday settlement: 5906, up 17, daily trading volume: 517243 lots, precipitated capital: 3.831 billion, capital outflow: 49.49 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

PVC spot market:The mainstream transaction prices in the domestic PVC market increased slightly, while the spot low-end prices decreased. Compared with the valuation, it rose 20 yuan / ton in North China, 30 yuan / ton in East China, 20-50 yuan / ton in South China, 50 yuan / ton in Northeast China, stable in Central China and stable in Southwest China. The ex-factory price of upstream PVC production enterprises is basically stable and there is no obvious adjustment, which coincides with a smooth offer on Friday to actively digest production inventory. Futures market volatility range is small and the direction is unknown, the spot market guidance is not strong, spot prices and a mouth price coexist, spot merchants offered a slightly higher price yesterday, the basis offer maintained the early stage, including East China basis offer 09 contract-(280-300-330), South China 09 contract-(150-240), North 09 contract-(430-470), Southwest 09 contract-(400-480). Today's spot market performance is relatively calm, trading is light, downstream in the early low replenishment after today's inquiry enthusiasm declined.

From the perspective of futures:The night price of the PVC2409 contract fell slightly at the start of the day, but did not fall much and then rose. The trend of the futures price after the beginning of early trading is nothing new, it is still running mainly in a small range, and there is a lack of a clear direction in the afternoon iteration. 2409 contracts fluctuated in the range of 5905-5943 throughout the day, with a spread of 38,09and a reduction of 12416 positions. So far, 924386 positions have been held, 2501 contracts closed at 6097, and positions are 145820 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

In terms of futures:The trend range of the futures price of the PVC2409 contract is only 38 points, and the extremely narrow fluctuation shows that the participation in futures has declined, and the total transaction volume is only more than 517000 hands. It coincides with Friday that under the stimulation of no clear external force in the two cities, the market lacks enough volatility direction, and the turnover is insufficient. Although the low price did not go down further, there are no obvious signs of improvement. The technical level shows that the Bolin belt (13, 13, 2) three tracks turn down, the distance between the KD lines at the daily level is shortened, and the daily turnover is 23.5% compared with 19.2% more. Still dominated by weakness and emptiness. The current futures market volatility may continue to be low in the short term, and observe the performance in the range of 5870-5970.

Spot aspect:First of all, after five consecutive falls in the two cities since their highs in the week, the atmosphere in the market has returned to the depressed and empty situation, whether the operation of the futures market or the spot market has gradually weakened. Compared with the range of the previous low level, the performance of the two cities is nothing new, and the supply and demand level can not provide clear factors leading to price changes, but it is worth noting that although partial short and weakness is the consensus of the overall PVC single product. However, the prices of the two cities did not decline further after a certain low point, but the market reversal and the price shift also lacked a clear positive stimulus, so the PVC spot market may enter a low consolidation period. In the outer disk, international oil prices closed higher for the second trading day in a row, as US inflation data unexpectedly slowed, increasing the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in September. On the whole, under the guidance of no clear factors in the PVC spot market in the short term, the price will still be adjusted in a narrow range.