Soda ash prices are stable and weak, market transactions are weakening (July 11 Weekly Review of Soda Ash)
1. Analysis of domestic soda ash market
This week, the domestic soda ash spot market is stable and moving. As of Thursday, the domestic light soda price is between 1,800 - 2,100 yuan/ton, and the heavy soda price is between 2,000 - 2,300 yuan/ton. This week, the starting load of the soda ash industry has increased, and the supply of goods has increased; companies mainly implement pre-orders, and the price of new orders has not changed much. The market transaction atmosphere has slowed down, but shipments have increased month-on-month and inventories have dropped slightly; Downstream procurement enthusiasm is average, mostly based on just-needed needs, market sentiment is more cautious, and the soda ash market is operating weakly and stably.
In terms of futures, the main soda ash contract continued to operate in a weak position during the week and fell below the support of 2000 yuan/ton. After the early supply disturbance problem recovered in stages, the actual supply-demand relationship remained loose, and prices fell sharply after market panic and concerns subsided. At the beginning of the month, the sustainability after the centralized replenishment of downstream stocks is limited, which makes it difficult to provide sustained positive feedback support for the market. The pressure on midstream shipments is high, and the rush behavior exacerbates market pessimism. In addition, the growth forecast for photovoltaic glass is also doubtful due to its own industry regulations and profit issues, and the support for the valuation of soda ash prices has been lowered. However, follow-up supply-side maintenance plans still exist, and there is still some support for prices while demand is stable.
Forecast for next week: soda supply remains high, with individual maintenance plans, and the overall impact will be small; Downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, focusing on just needs, and the market is more on the wait-and-see; companies follow up on new orders generally and execute more pending orders, and prices are expected to remain weak and stable in the short term.
2. Comparison of market prices of soda ash in regions
Unit: yuan/ton
3. Soda ash process profit statement
As of July 11 this week, the profit of the combined alkali method was 582 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton from the previous week; the profit of the ammonia-alkali method was 335 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week.
4. Equipment maintenance of soda ash enterprises
About 87.30% of the soda ash industry started this week, an increase of 3.31% from last week. According to incomplete statistics, the output of soda ash manufacturers this week is about 725,800 tons.
5. Soda ash manufacturer inventory
The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers this week was 903,600 tons, compared with around 984,100 tons last week, a month-on-month decrease of 80,500 tons, or 8.91%.
