Daily Review of Urea: High prices in the market, weak transactions, mostly low-end goods (July 11)

Domestic urea price index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on July 11 was 2,337.86, a decrease of 2.27 from yesterday, a month-on-month decrease of 0.10% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.18%.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of the urea UR409 contract is 2068, the highest price is 2085, the lowest price is 2055, the settlement price is 2070, and the closing price is 2067. The closing price has increased by 6 compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day, up 0.29% month-on-month. The fluctuation range throughout the day is 2055-2085; the basis of the 09 contract in Shandong is 213; the 09 contract has reduced its position by 8745 lots today, and so far, the position has been held by 176816 lots.

Today, urea futures prices fluctuated mainly within a narrow range with the market environment. There are still expectations that the fundamentals of urea itself are weak, but the absolute level of in-plant inventories is still low, and the international atmosphere is strong, which still has some support for urea prices. In the short term, urea itself still lacks its own strong drive, or continues to maintain a volatile pattern with the market environment.

Spot market analysis:

Today, domestic ureamarketpriceLarge stability and small movements, the market trading atmosphere is weak, high-priced transactions are weak, downstream follow-up is cautious, and more low-priced replenishment is made.。

Specifically, prices in Northeast China have stabilized at 2,350 - 2,400 yuan/ton. Prices in East China have stabilized at 2,270 - 2,320 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China has stabilized at 2,240 - 2,450 yuan/ton, while the price of large particles has dropped to 2,260 - 2,280 yuan/ton. Prices in North China fell to 2,140 - 2,420 yuan/ton. Prices in South China fell to 2,340 - 2,420 yuan/ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 2,380 - 2,400 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,220 - 2,550 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of factories, manufacturers still have support for pending orders. Currently, shipments are maintaining stable. Quotes are firm and stable based on pending support. Some companies with better orders have slightly increased their quotations, and the focus of negotiations has shifted upward. In terms of the market, after prices rose in some regions yesterday, downstream orders were not active. A small number of new orders were traded in the market fell short of expectations. Trading performance was relatively deadlocked, transactions were light, and the market fluctuated within a narrow range. In terms of supply, Nissan is still gradually improving. Currently, corporate inventories remain low and have increased slightly. Market supply may continue to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term. On the demand side, agricultural topdressing has continued recently, with rice and corn topdressing and fertilizer supplementation in East China and North China following up. However, the mentality is more cautious to cover the warehouse, and the demand side has difficulty in following up on a large scale. Most purchases are maintained on bargain hunting, and sporadic small orders are mainly followed up. Demand at this stage is weak in supporting prices.

On the whole, there is a certain amount of demand in the downstream of the urea market, but it is difficult to deal at high prices. Many low-end markets are selling goods, and the support for the market is weak. It is expected that the urea market price will continue to weaken slightly in the short term, and the quotation will be firm and weak.