Methanol: Quotes in the main producing areas remain high and the market transaction atmosphere is acceptable

On July 10, the methanol market price index was 2197.10, down 0.16 from yesterday and 0.01 per cent lower than yesterday.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on July 9:

China CFR 290-293 US dollars / ton, up 4 US dollars / ton

Us FOB 106107cents / gallon, flat

Us $353-354 per ton in Southeast Asia, Ping

European FOB 319.75-320.75 euros / ton, down 3 euros / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2240-2260 (0), North Route: 2120-2130 (10), Lunan: 2380-2390 (0), Henan: 2350-2360 (10), Shanxi: 2215-2300 (0), Port: 25052520 (0)

Freight:

Northern Route 240-270 (- 10Uniqure 10), Northern Route-Southern Shandong 300-330 (0amp 0), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 250-280 (10amp 10), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 140-180 (0max 0)

Spot marketToday, the price of methanol market is adjusted in a narrow range, and most mainland enterprises are operating firmly under the support of little inventory pressure, the enthusiasm of downstream operators to enter the market is OK, the futures market is fluctuating, and the quotation of the port spot market is adjusted with the order. The enthusiasm of the operators to enter the market is not good, and the inquiry atmosphere is low. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas are adjusted in a narrow range. The quotation on the southern route is around 2150-2160 yuan / ton, the low end is raised by 30 yuan / ton, and the quotation on the northern line is around 2120-2130 yuan / ton. The quotations of some manufacturers in the main producing areas continue to rise, and the lower reaches operators are more enthusiastic in entering the market to replenish their stocks. The market transaction atmosphere is good, and the attitude of operators is relatively strong. The market price in Shandong, the main consumption area, is adjusted in a narrow range, with 2380-2390 yuan / ton in southern Shandong and 2380-2400 yuan / ton in northern Shandong. Most of the downstream raw material inventory is high and the purchasing enthusiasm is not good. The market quotation in North China is adjusted in a narrow range. Hebei quotation is 2215-2300 yuan / ton today. The profitability of the downstream industry is poor, the demand side still has a negative feedback impact on the market, and the promotion of market prices is limited; Shanxi quotation today is 2215-2300 yuan / ton. maintain yesterday, the overall supply pressure in the region is not big, the market atmosphere has been boosted, and manufacturers' quotations have been raised narrowly.

Port marketToday, methanol futures are slightly less volatile. Sell arbitrage goods, near-end rigid demand replenishment, the basis is strong; long-term bargain to receive goods, the basis is stable. The idea of replacement continues, and the price difference of 7 amp 8 has narrowed slightly. The overall deal is OK. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2500-2520, base difference 09-35 Maximus 25There is a deal: 2505-2520, basis difference 09-25 picturesque 20bot 7 transaction: 2515-2540, base difference 09-10 Mobility 5Tran 8 deal: 2540-2565, basis difference 09mm 17pm lead 209 deal: 2565-2585, basis difference 09pm 35pm 38.

Future forecast:Recently, the overall performance of the mainland market is good, and the manufacturers in the main producing areas quote a strong operation under the support of low inventory, and the 200000-ton methanol plant in Shenmu Phase I temporarily shut down yesterday afternoon and is expected to recover in about 3 days. The 600000-ton methanol plant of Crane Coal was officially shut down today, and it is expected that the market supply in the region will continue to decrease after about 20 days of overhaul, but considering that the traditional downstream market is in the off-season of consumption, and there is no plan to restart the olefin plant for the time being, under the influence of weak demand, to a certain extent, limit the extent of methanol follow-up. It is expected that the short-term methanol market price will continue the range fluctuation trend, but in the later stage, we should pay attention to the coal price, the operation of the plant in the field and the follow-up of downstream demand.