Analysis of soda ash market
Today, the domestic soda ash market price is stable. As of now, the price of light soda ash in North China is between 1,950 - 2,100 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is between 2,150 - 2,250 yuan/ton; the price of light soda ash in Southwest China is between 2,050 - 2,150 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is between 2,200 - 2,300 yuan/ton; as the market continues to complete stocking, soda ash companies are weak in signing new orders, and manufacturers mainly arrange orders and deliver; Recently, the market transaction atmosphere has gradually weakened. Some companies have continued to need replenishment, and the soda ash market price has temporarily stabilized.
Futures dynamics
According to Boduo data, the opening price of SA2409, the main contract for soda ash, on July 10, was 2055 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 1952 yuan/ton, an increase of-4.41% within the day. The intraday high was 2055 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1946 yuan/ton, with a total position of 793651 lots, a month-on-month +8907 lots.
Today, soda ash futures prices fell sharply. At present, the supply and demand relationship of soda ash still maintains a small surplus. The sustainability after phased replenishment of stocks in the middle and lower reaches is relatively limited, and the market transaction situation is poor. In addition, the downstream demand-side photovoltaic glass industry is in poor condition, and expectations for growth in demand for soda ash have weakened. In addition, it was announced in early trading today that domestic CPI data for June weakened month-on-month, and the higher real interest rate level also suppressed the domestic economic environment. Overall, expectations of supply reduction and demand increase during the maintenance season may gradually falsify. Under this premise, soda ash market sentiment continues to weaken. Whether there are new disturbances on the soda ash supply side in the short term still needs to be paid attention to, and the recurrence of macro sentiments during the important meeting in July cannot be determined. Before the above two major problems emerge, the soda ash market may still be dominated by the main logic of excess.
market outlook
The equipment operation of the soda plant is generally stable, and the output of individual companies has dropped slightly; companies have successively delivered scheduled orders, and inventories have maintained a downward trend. As some downstream companies complete the preparations, market procurement returns to the level of just-needed, and the supply-demand relationship maintains a basic balance. Prices are expected to remain weak and stable in the short term.
