Analysis of soda ash market
Today, the domestic soda ash market price has temporarily stabilized. As of now, the price of light soda ash in North China is between 1,950 - 2,100 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is between 2,150 - 2,250 yuan/ton; the price of light soda ash in Central China is between 1,800 - 2,000 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is between 2,050 - 2,200 yuan/ton; soda ash enterprises are basically at full capacity when starting operations, and the market supply is relatively high; Procurement in the downstream market is stable. With the gradual completion of early preparations, market procurement has slowed down in recent days. Soda factories have successively delivered orders in hand, and market production and sales are basically balanced.
Futures dynamics
According to Boduo data, the opening price of SA2409, the main contract for soda ash, on July 9, was 2040 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 2049 yuan/ton, an increase of-1.73% within the day. The intraday high was 2065 yuan/ton, the lowest was 2020 yuan/ton, with a total position of 784740 lots, a month-on-month +36085 lots.
Today, soda ash futures prices were mainly weak and volatile, but there were signs of stabilization due to the overall market environment. At the beginning of the month, the disturbance problem on the supply side recovered in stages, and the impact of actual output did not cause excessive tension in the supply and demand relationship. The sustainability after the phased replenishment of the middle and lower reaches of the stock market is relatively limited, making it difficult to form a sustained positive feedback market. However, with the downward trend of prices, before the story of the maintenance season is over, existing negative factors may temporarily be difficult to give confidence to break down. Whether there are new disturbances on the soda ash supply side in the short term still needs to be paid attention to. During the important meeting in July, the repetition of macro emotions cannot be determined. Today's market atmosphere shows signs of stabilization. However, whether there can be continuity in driving and undertaking is a key issue. Before that, it is temporarily difficult for the soda ash market to have a substantial driving force.
market outlook
Follow-up maintenance plans still exist, and supply disturbances have affected the market mentality. In the short term, soda plants have successively delivered orders in hand, and the market supply pressure has eased, but the relative transaction atmosphere has also weakened, and the soda ash market has temporarily remained stable.
