Daily Review of Urea: Market operation is deadlocked, market prices are weak and downward (July 9)

Domestic urea price index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on July 9 was 2,341.50, a decrease of 22.73 from yesterday, a month-on-month decrease of 0.96% and a year-on-year increase of 1.28%.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of the Urea UR2409 contract is 2086, the highest price is 2114, the lowest price is 2070, the settlement price is 2095, and the closing price is 2088. The closing price is 8 lower than the settlement price of the previous trading day, down 0.38% month-on-month. The fluctuation range of the whole day is 2070-2114; the basis of the 09 contract in Shandong is 192; the 09 contract has reduced its position by 919 lots today, and so far, the position is 194378 lots.

Today, urea futures prices are still generally weak and volatile, and the overall market changes are limited. At present, the fundamentals of urea itself are expected to be weak, but the problems of low inventory and repeated supply and demand in reality still exist. There is a temporary lack of strong driving forces. In the short term, the market may still focus on weak expectations, weak logic shocks and waiting for the driving force.

Spot market analysis:

Today, domestic ureamarketPrices continue to be lowered slightly, and the domestic market is in a stalemate. Companies are less willing to cut prices, so they have lowered their quotations slightly to attract orders.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China fell to 2,350 - 2,400 yuan/ton. Prices in East China fell to 2,260 - 2,320 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China fell to 2,250 - 2,450 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles fell to 2,260 - 2,280 yuan/ton. Prices in North China fell to 2,150 - 2,420 yuan/ton. Prices in South China fell to 2,350 - 2,420 yuan/ton. Prices in Northwest China fell to 2,380 - 2,400 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China fell to 2,220 - 2,650 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of factories, manufacturers are still short of acquiring new orders, and a small number of pending orders are still in place. The current pressure on acquiring orders is gradually increasing. Under pressure on shipments, quotations have been lowered more and more to acquire orders. After selling at a reduced price, the transaction volume of some companies has improved. Some companies have accumulated pending orders and prices have remained stable. In terms of the market, the market lacks the support of good news, and the market continues to be weak and downward. The sentiment of the industry is mostly pessimistic. The market is deadlocked and loosened and is consolidating downwards. The overall trading atmosphere in the market is currently average. On the supply side, the industry's supply side continues to be sufficient, and Nissan continues to maintain a stable high level and fluctuate within a narrow range. On the demand side, domestic rainfall has increased recently, and the drought of planting plants has been alleviated. The follow-up of agricultural demand has been mostly regionalized. Replenishment is relatively scattered, and on-demand procurement is the main focus. There has not yet been centralized procurement. There is still a need for future agricultural topdressing; Industrial demand is appropriate and just needs to be advanced, and the overall demand-side support is weak. In terms of printing and labeling, India's IPL announced yesterday that the import tender had received a total of 19 suppliers, totaling 3.2541 million tons of goods. The lowest CIF price is US$365/ton on the east coast and US$350.5/ton on the west coast. With the support of short-term printing, the market is temporarily stable and deadlocked.

On the whole, the current supply-demand relationship in the urea market is loose and it is difficult to support prices. Supported by short-term printing news, the market is deadlocked and consolidated. It is expected that the price deadlock in the urea market will loosen downward in a short period of time.