Analysis of soda ash market
Today, the domestic soda ash market has stabilized and moved slightly, and prices in South China and Southwest have adjusted slightly. As of now, the price of light soda ash in South China is 2,100 - 2,150 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 2,250 - 2,350 yuan/ton; The price of light soda ash in Southwest China is 2,050 - 2,150 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 2,200 - 2,300 yuan/ton; In the early stage, some maintenance companies resumed production, and market starts have improved; At present, soda ash companies have some orders in hand, and the pressure on manufacturers 'inventory has eased, and orders and shipments are mainly carried out. The demand for replenishment by downstream companies has increased recently, the market transaction atmosphere is relatively good, and soda ash prices are generally stable.
Futures dynamics
According to Boduo data, the opening price of SA2409, the main contract for soda ash, on July 8, was 2121 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 2040 yuan/ton, an increase of-5.51% within the day. The intraday high was 2127 yuan/ton, the lowest was 2033 yuan/ton, with a total position of 748655 lots, a month-on-month +16957 lots.
Today, soda ash futures prices continued to fall sharply. At the beginning of the month, the disturbance problem on the supply side recovered in stages, and the impact of actual output did not cause excessive tension in the supply and demand relationship. The sustainability after the phased replenishment of the middle and lower reaches of the stock market is relatively limited, making it difficult to form a sustained positive feedback market. In addition, the overall commodity market environment has weakened recently, and market rumors that the soda ash factory has full production capacity and expectations for downstream demand growth may be falsified in stages. The expectation of supply reduction and demand increase in the maintenance season may gradually falsify. Under this premise, the soda ash market sentiment continues to weaken. Whether there are new disturbances on the soda ash supply side in the short term still needs to be paid attention to, and the recurrence of macro sentiments during the important meeting in July cannot be determined. Before the above two major problems emerge, the soda ash market may still be dominated by the main logic of excess.
market outlook
Follow-up maintenance plans still exist, and supply disturbance issues affect market mentality; as market orders increase, market sentiment has eased, corporate orders are in good condition, prices may maintain stability in the short term, and prices in some regions may adjust slightly.
