Methanol: Futures continued to fall and spot prices increased within a narrow range

On July 8, the methanol market price index was 2186.05, up 9.86 from the previous working day and 0.45% higher than the previous working day.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on July 5:

China CFR 290-292USD / ton, Ping

The United States is closed

Southeast Asia 353-354 US dollars / ton, down 2 US dollars / ton

European FOB 322.75-323.75 euros / ton, down 2 euros / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2250-2270 (50), North Route: 2100-2120 (20), Lunan: 2380 (0), Henan: 2330-2360 (- 15), Shanxi: 2180-2310 (0), Port: 2490-2505 (- 25)

Freight:

North Route-North Shandong 250-290 (0ram Mueller 20), North Route-South Shandong 300-330 (0amp mer 10), South Route-North Shandong 240-270 (0max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 140-180 (0max 0)

Spot marketToday, the price of methanol market is adjusted in a narrow range, the futures market continues to fall, the price of the port spot market goes down with the market, the spot basis does not change much, the enthusiasm of downstream operators to enter the market to replenish stock is not high, rigid demand is dominant, and the overall trading atmosphere in the market is general. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas are adjusted in a narrow range, with the southern quotation around 2120 yuan / ton, stable, the northern quotation around 2100-2120 yuan / ton, the low end up by 20 yuan / ton, the futures market fluctuating downwards, and the mood of downstream and traders receiving goods is cautious. After the new price issued by some manufacturers, the transaction is general, but at present, the inventory level of most enterprises is not high, and there is a little support for the mentality of manufacturers. Market prices in Shandong, the main consumer area, are adjusted in a narrow range, with 2380 yuan / ton in southern Shandong and 2390-2400 yuan / ton in northern Shandong. The current futures trend is volatile and downward, the industry is in a strong wait-and-see mood, the downstream rigid demand for goods, and the market trading atmosphere is weakening. The market quotation in North China is adjusted in a narrow range. Hebei quotation is 2300-2350 yuan / ton today. At the beginning of the week, most methanol manufacturers in Hebei hold a wait-and-see mentality, the market price is not big, the fundamentals in the region are not good, the terminal demand is weak, and the market transaction volume is difficult; Shanxi quotation today is 2180-2310 yuan / ton, maintaining yesterday, business sentiment is lack of confidence, purchasing enthusiasm is low, market transaction atmosphere is light.

Port marketToday, methanol futures fell back and consolidated. Early in the morning near-end rigid demand replenishment, arbitrage delivery-based; long-term a small number of bargain-seeking goods, the basis is strong. There was a slight stalemate in the afternoon and the monthly difference narrowed slightly. The overall deal is OK. Taicang main port transaction price: spot / 7: 2490-2505, base difference 09-30 pictures25 Port7 deal: 2490-2505, base difference 09-30 picturesque 25 city7 deal: 2500-2520, base difference 09-15 Universe 10 players 8 transactions: 2530-2550, basis difference 09 million 10 pounds 15.

Future forecast:With the smooth delivery of goods in the early stage, the overall inventory pressure in the main production area is not great at present, some manufacturers in the field maintain high new prices under the support of low inventory, and some people have parking plans in the later stage, so the market supply in the region has been reduced. it forms a certain support to the market price in the production area, but considering that the traditional downstream market is in the off-season of consumption, and the olefin plant has no plan to restart temporarily, under the influence of weak demand. The mindset of market operators is poor, and the futures market is weak and volatile, to a certain extent, the mindset of bears, downstream and traders are mainly cautious and rigid demand operation. Generally speaking, the short-term methanol market price is expected to continue the range fluctuation trend, but in the later stage, we should pay attention to the coal price, the operation of the plant in the field and the follow-up of downstream demand.