PVC: The futures price increase is obviously downward and the downside is obviously short, lamenting, the spot market point price advantage

PVC Futures Analysis:V2409 contract opening price: 6051, highest price: 6073, lowest price: 6008, position: 922944, settlement price: 6043, yesterday settlement: 6098, down 55, daily trading volume: 767277 lots, precipitated capital: 3.885 billion, capital inflow: 49.87 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

PVC spot market:The mainstream transaction price of the domestic PVC market declined slightly, and the spot market atmosphere weakened. Compared with the valuation, it fell by 40-50 yuan / ton in North China, 30-50 yuan / ton in East China, 50 yuan / ton in South China, 50 yuan / ton in Northeast China, 30 yuan / ton in Central China and 50 yuan / ton in Southwest China. Upstream PVC production enterprises factory prices at the beginning of a partial reduction of 20-30-50 yuan / ton, including northwest enterprises off-site warehouse prices synchronous downward, some enterprises happen to wait and see on Friday. Futures are weak, especially in the afternoon. The spot market quotation is slightly lower than yesterday. After the futures price goes down, the price advantage is obvious, and the basis is adjusted slightly. Among them, 09 contracts in East China-(330-350), 09 contracts in South China-(250-330), 09 contracts in North China-(500-550), 09 contracts in Southwest China-(400-450). Downstream products enterprises rigid demand procurement, low hanging order there is a certain transaction, the spot market at present a price inquiry is not much, and the reference significance is not great, the high price is difficult to have a transaction.

From the perspective of futures:The price of PVC2409 contract in night trading is mainly arranged in a narrow range, and the fluctuation of futures price is lack of rising and falling direction. After the beginning of morning trading, the futures price still continues the trend of small-scale arrangement, and the trend of late morning and afternoon trading is downward. 2409 contracts fluctuated in the range of 6008-6073 throughout the day, with a spread of 65. 09 contracts with an increase of 16971 positions, with 922944 positions so far, 2501 contracts closing at 6183 and 136034 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

In terms of futures:The trend of PVC2409 contract futures prices first of all further refreshed the low, the lowest point of 6008 is almost the same as last week's low of 6006, the market showed a downward situation of increasing positions, in terms of trading, it opened 22.8% more than short opened 24.1%. What is different from yesterday is that today's trading is dominated by short positions. The technical level shows that the three-track openings of the Bollinger belt (13, 13, 2) are all downward, the KD lines and MACD lines at the daily line level show a dead-fork trend, the technical closing lines show a short arrangement, and the multi-leveling of the disk surface takes into account the appearance of multiple single-stop losses. At present, the support from the fundamentals is insufficient, and there is no policy port, so the operation of the futures price in the short term may still be under pressure to observe the performance of the lower rail support level and the prefix 6.

Spot aspect:From the current trend of the market, we can see that there is a certain short trend in the futures market, and the high probability tests the prefix 6. For the spot market, the downward price of futures makes the point price close, and the downstream rigid demand replenishment buys down but does not buy up. However, except for the rigid demand and the basic volume of the first-generation contract, there is no additional demand in the overall spot market, so it is difficult to get rid of the stock. The restriction of high inventory makes the tone of the two cities empty. At present, the fundamentals of PVC are weak, and the overall plasticizing plate has been in an empty role. In the outer disk, Brent crude oil futures hit the highest settlement level since April, reaching more than 87 US dollars per barrel, continuing to be supported by a sharp decline in US crude oil inventories. Investors followed the minutes of the Fed's most recent policy meeting for new signals about the timing of interest rate cuts. Overall, the spot market price of PVC may be slightly weak and low in the short term.