Soda ash prices have stopped falling and recovered (7.4 Weekly Review of Soda Ash)
1. Analysis of domestic soda ash market
This week, the domestic soda ash spot market fell first and then stabilized. As of this Thursday, the domestic light soda price was between 1,800 - 2,100 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash was between 2,000 - 2,300 yuan/ton;During the week, some soda ash companies stopped equipment maintenance, and the market operating rate dropped slightly., but the overall supply is relatively sufficient; as the price of soda ash continues to fall, it has stimulated the market's demand for stocking. Company shipments have improved, but some manufacturers still have inventory pressure; downstream companies have stable demand, but most of them are mainly replenished at low prices and appropriate amounts. The soda ash market has picked up slightly.
In terms of futures, soda ash prices rebounded slightly during the week. Mainly due to the new maintenance plans on the supply side after July and the impact of unexpected disturbances, market worries reappeared. After the previous price fell to a low level, some middle and lower reaches also experienced bottom-hunting and replenishment behaviors during the month change, forming a phased positive market feedback. However, given that soda ash itself is basically facing the suppression of price elasticity, the space above is temporarily limited, and the main focus is to wait for new drivers.
Forecast for next week: As maintenance companies resume production, overall start-up will hover at a high level; affected by low soda ash prices, market demand for stocking will increase but the probability of a significant increase is not high; the market transaction atmosphere will gradually improve, and purchase orders from downstream terminal companies and traders will increase; In the short term, the soda ash market will be stable and improving, but it is still necessary to pay close attention to changes in supply and demand relations and fluctuations in market sentiment.
2. Comparison of market prices of soda ash in regions
Unit: yuan/ton
3. Soda ash process profit statement
As of July 4 this week, the profit of the combined alkali method was 609 yuan/ton, down 72 yuan/ton from the previous week; the profit of the ammonia-alkali method was 335 yuan/ton, down 100.5 yuan/ton from the previous week.
4. Equipment maintenance of soda ash enterprises
About 84.50% of the soda ash industry started this week, a decrease of 3.21% from last week. According to incomplete statistics, the output of soda ash manufacturers this week is about 704,000 tons.
5. Soda ash manufacturer inventory
The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers this week was 984,100 tons, compared with around 967,000 tons last week, an increase of 17,100 tons month-on-month, an increase of 1.74%.
