Daily Review of Urea: Futures market led the spot market urea market to rise slightly (July 4)

Domestic urea price index:

According to calculations from Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on July 4 was 2,375.14, an increase of 5.00 from yesterday, a month-on-month increase of 0.21% and a year-on-year increase of 4.13%.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of the Urea UR409 contract is 2160, the highest price is 2162, the lowest price is 2132, the settlement price is 2147, and the closing price is 4,400 compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day, up 0.19% month-on-month. The fluctuation range throughout the day is 2132-2162; the basis of the 09 contract in Shandong is 168; the 09 contract has reduced its position by 8701 lots today, and so far, it has held 212466 lots.

Today, urea futures prices fell mainly from high altitudes. Yesterday, bullish sentiment, driven by data showing that the actual relationship between supply and demand was tightening, dropped somewhat, and expectations of weakening fundamentals remained. However, repeated pressure on both sides of supply and demand kept domestic manufacturers 'inventories at a low level, which still has some support for market prices. In the short term, the urea market may remain dominated by wide fluctuations.

Spot market analysis:

Today, domestic ureamarketPrices have stabilized and increased slightly. The domestic spot market is in the off-season of demand. Recently, driven by the futures market, new orders in the spot market have followed up, companies have received better orders, and some quotations have rebounded.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China fell to 2,430 - 2,460 yuan/ton. Prices in East China rose to 2,290 - 2,340 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China rose to 2,270 - 2,450 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles rose to 2,260 - 2,310 yuan/ton. Prices in North China rose to 2,180 - 2,470 yuan/ton. Prices in South China rose to 2,370 - 2,450 yuan/ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 2,410 - 2,430 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,250 - 2,650 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of factories, manufacturers 'orders have improved recently, and orders to be issued have increased. The quotations of some manufacturers with better orders have increased slightly. The focus of market negotiations has returned to the upper level. However, due to the impact of the current off-season on demand, the price increase is relatively limited and continues to increase. Difficulties. In terms of the market, driven by the rise in the market, the trading atmosphere in the spot market has warmed up. Under the linkage of futures and current, the futures market has stimulated downstream spot positions to follow up. The market has stopped falling and made up for gains in a narrow range. The downstream bargain-hunting has followed up. New orders have been traded actively, and the market range has fluctuated. In terms of supply, maintenance equipment was restored one after another this week. During the week, some equipment in the industry had frequent failures, but most of them were short-term stops, and the operating rate increased slightly. Companies were shipping goods one after another, and inventories continued to be removed slightly, and industry inventories were still at low levels. On the demand side, domestic rainfall has increased, the demand for topdressing and fertilizer preparation for agricultural rice and corn has advanced, and downstream warehouses have been replenished in stages, and most of them need to be followed up; industrial compound fertilizer factories have less raw materials in stock, and a small amount is stored to appropriately follow up on the willingness to replenish goods. Support from weak demand.

On the whole, the current urea spot market is driven by the futures market, and prices are rising slightly firm. However, the overall demand side is still weak, and prices continue to rise. It is expected that the urea market will increase steadily and moderately in a short period of time, with limited upside space.